On the eve of Jesse Ventura's announcement of whether or not he will enter the Minnesota Senate race, today Rasmussen released a new poll showing Al Franken with a 2 point lead over Norm Coleman, 44 to 42. In a 3 way race including Ventura, the results were Coleman 36, Franken 34, and Ventura 22.
http://rasmussenreports.com/...
A lot of blogs and commenters have been writing Franken off after weak polling results, but I have always thought that Al had a good chance of pulling this one off. I will admit to some bias, because he is a personal friend of mine. But he is bright, well-informed, and charismatic, and he is running against a Bush enabler in 2008 in an increasingly blue state, so I always believed that Al would close well. I would prefer that Ventura stay out, because he is a complete wild card in what should otherwise be a very Democratic leaning electorate, and the Rasmussen poll does indicate that Ventura would take away more support from Franken than from Coleman.
Also, Franken seems to have more room to grow than Coleman. In the 2 way matchup, Coleman got 90% of the Republican vote, Franken got 76% of Democrats, and the candidates split the unaffiliated vote.
In the 3 way race, Coleman got 79% of Republican voters, but 14% say they’d vote for Ventura. Franken only got 62% of Democrats, with 21% going for Ventura. Among unaffiliated voters, the numbers are Coleman 34%, Ventura 30%, and Franken 25%.
So if Franken can shore up his base, and pick up a few more independents, his numbers could improve dramatically, whereas Coleman may have hit his ceiling.