One of the most often talked-about issues around the selection of a Vice Presidential candidate is the cost-benefit analysis of what the party stands to lose if they vacate their current elected office (if any; Mitt Romney over on the Republican side doesn’t have one, for example; on the other hand, if McCain picked Bobby Jindal and they won, it would hand the Louisiana Governorship over to Democrat Mitch Landrieu).
So here is, to the best of my knowledge, what a successful VP bid would mean for the various individuals that are speculated about for the Democratic nomination.
Name: Tim Kaine
Office: Governor of Virginia
Would-Be Replacement: Republican Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling
Kaine is the most likely choice to me, and unquestionably picking him would mean ceding the Governor’s Mansion to a Republican. However, since Kaine is term-limited to one, and there’s only about a year left, I imagine Virginia Democrats would accept their first ticket-placement since John Tyler (okay, Wilson, but he was a Joisey-an by that point) as a more than fair trade.
Name: Janet Napolitano
Office: Governor of Arizona
Would-Be Replacement: Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer
One of the states that has no Lieutenant Governor. Like Kaine, Napolitano is term-limited and would cede the office to a Republican, but for a longer period (the next election being in 2010, for a term expiring in early 2011).
Name: Kathleen Sebelius
Office: Governor of Kansas
Would-Be Replacement: Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mark Parkinson
Like the above two governors, Sebelius is term-limited ending in 2011, though unlike them, her prospective replacement is a Dem (albeit a party-switcher, one of the many Republicans Sebelius was able to woo over to her side).
Name: Bill Richardson
Office: Governor of New Mexico
Would-Be Replacement: Democratic Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish
Like all the others, Richardson’s at the end of his limit of terms (expiring in 2011), and, like Sebelius, he’s got a Dem as a replacement.
Past the governors we get to the senators, where things get a bit more complicated, given the chosen method of most states is a temporary appointment by the governor, with some states specifying what party the replacement must be from, and giving said party input.
Name: Jack Reed
Senator From: Rhode Island
Governor: Republican Donald Carcieri
The first of a couple of blue-state senators who have Republican governors; however, were Obama to pick Reed, the Democrats’ hammerlock on both houses of the legislature would allow them to take the preventative measures Massachusetts Democrats did in 2004 in preparation for a Kerry victory.
Name: Evan Bayh
Senator From: Indiana
Governor: Republican Mitch Daniels
That option is not available to Indiana Democrats; Bayh vacating his seat would give it to the Republicans.
Name: Joe Biden
Senator From: Delaware
Governor: Democrat Ruth Ann Minner (outgoing)
The person holding the Governor’s office is probably not relevant in this case, since Biden is up for reelection in 2008, so if he were on the VP ticket he would probably have to bow out of the Senate race, adding another contest (though Lieberman got away with it in 2000).
For whatever reason, most of the talked-of VP picks have Republican backups. As I said with Kaine's entry, the presidency is the big prize that everyone will have their eyes on, and state parties, in particular, will be keenly aware that the VP is normally the de facto nominee after the current guy leaves, though some of these people are a bit old for that.
I would prize the Senate seats more than the governorships, simply because, from the perspective of the national party, we're going to need as many people in our court as possible if President Obama is going to have a shot at fixing the country's many problems.