Did you know that McCain has a two month losing streak in head-to-head polls against Barack Obama?
Maybe you've been distracted by beltway politics. That's understandable. Myself, I can't get excited over all this Wes Clark/FISA/campaign finance/faith-based b.s. This is the end of June, and none of this stuff's gonna matter come August, much less election day. Wes Clark committed a minor gaffe, the media pounced, and it's already starting to backfire on McCain. FISA is bad, but it hasn't passed yet so let's wait and see. Obama's decision to decline public financing and raise money from small donors was a great decision. Al Gore supported faith-based charities in 2000, so I don't see how it is controversial that Obama supports it now.
It would do us all some good to step back and admire the landscape, folks. I've got some good news for you, courtesy of Real Clear Politics: McCain has not led in a national non-tracking poll since May 3rd.
Since then, Obama has led or tied in 31 straight polls. If you look at Pollster.com, which includes the tracking polls and smaller outfits like YouGov, Obama has led or tied in 41 straight polls since May 27th.
McCain is on a horrible streak -- but it's nothing new. McCain has consistently lost to Obama since early 2007.
Since February 1st, 2008, Obama has led in 63 polls. John McCain has led in just 10. That's a 63-10-5 record for Obama.
Obama's largest lead in 2008 has been 15 points. He has led McCain by double digits six times this year.
McCain's largest lead was 7 points. He has never led by double digits. (If you exclude the tracking polls. There was one Rasmussen tracking poll that had McCain up 51-41 in March).
Since Obama announced his candidacy on Febuary 10th, 2007, his record against McCain in head-to-head polls is 96-21-12.
Exclude the ties, and Obama is winning 82% of the head-to-head polls since he started running for president, 86% in 2008, and 100% in the last two months.
For comparison's sake, I looked at the 2004 polls. From around Feb 1st 2004 until July 1st, Bush led Kerry in head-to-head polls 53-36-9. John Kerry took the lead in July and August (33-10-6), but swiftboating and the RNC convention knocked him back for good in September and October. Kerry only led Bush by double digits in a single February poll, and Bush only led Kerry by double-digits in two polls. It was a much closer race.
Yes, yes, I know that Michael Dukakis had a bigger lead on George H.W. Bush than Barack Obama has on John McCain right now. But as anyone with a brain can see, Obama is not Dukakis and 2008 is not 1988. Right now Obama is consistently crushing McCain in the polls, and nothing seems to have given McCain any signs of life.
Will McCain come back to life in July, August, September? We'll see. But to do so, he'll have to turn around a situation in which Obama has regularly led him from day one, despite being the lesser known candidate. I wouldn't want to be in the McCain campaign's shoes, that's for sure. No wonder they are so damn whiny.