Betcha John McCain didn’t see this one coming.
Ol’ smilin’ John may not be smilin’ so much when he realizes just how much money it’s going to cost to continue bribing the Sunni tribesmen who’ve proven to be a major part of the so-called success of the surge escalation. The anti-jihadists-cum-lately are in no mood for small talk these days. In fact, they’ve offered the U.S. military an ultimatum – either pony up more money or they’ll be rejoining the ranks of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI).
"I'll go back to al-Qaeda if you stop backing the Sahwa (Awakening) groups," Col. Satar tells U.S. Lt. Matthew McKernon, as he tries to secure more funding for his men to help battle the anti-U.S. insurgents.
It’s no secret that the Sunnis making up the Awakening were only recently full-fledged insurgents who fought American troops under the banner of AQI. Many had served in Saddam Hussein’s army before the invasion. After Paul Bremer disbanded the entire Iraqi army in 2003 – allowing them to take their guns with them -- joining AQI became the perfect vehicle to fight the occupiers.
But after time, many of the Sunnis tired of taking orders from the mostly foreign fighters of AQI, and when offered an alternative; the majority of Sunnis jumped at the chance to make cold hard American cash simply by changing allegiances.
Military.com has the story John McCain had better pay attention to:
They earn around 300 dollars a month and their presence at checkpoints and on patrol has become an essential component of the U.S.-led coalition's strategy to restore order in the war-wracked country.
"I like my work," said Satar, who is in charge of security south of Baquba in Iraq's eastern Diyala province.
According to McKernon, Satar has a contract with the U.S. military to employ 230 men "but he has more than 300" under his command, which is why he wants more money to keep them happy.
The U.S. military knows perfectly well that many people joined Awakening groups simply because it was a good way to make money, and that if the cash flow dries up some would not hesitate to return to al-Qaeda.
Needless to say, U.S. military leaders are scrambling to avoid that particular scenario and have begun offering members of the Awakening the option of either trying to return to their prior lives or joining the Iraqi security forces, according to U.S. Admiral Patrick Driscoll.
Some 17,000 Awakening members have opted for the second choice, and 2,500 of them now hold administrative positions, Driscoll said.
But not everyone in Baquba is happy with the situation.
"Yesterday's killers have now become our protectors," said one skeptical resident who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Who should I trust to protect my family?"
Apparently, Diyala province remains one of the most dangerous regions in Iraq despite overall levels of violence hitting a four-year low last month. The city of Baquba has seen the worst violence as of late. Police said last Thursday a woman suicide bomber attacked one of the Awakening patrols in central Baquba that killed 8 members, including a commander.
It was only a little more than a year ago when the densely populated city was the scene of continued deadly fighting that forced many residents to flee. As is common with many of the besieged cities in Iraq, most residents have not returned.
Among those few who’ve dared to return to the simmering tensions that continue to grip Baquba, the Shi'ite Wahab family recently went back to the Katun neighborhood, a mostly Sunni area on the west side of town. But no sooner had they settled in when a home-made bomb blasted through the gate of their home. The next day, the eldest son, Mahmud, found a second bomb a few yards from the front of their home.
Abu Zarra, an Awakening group commander of 300 men in Katun who accompanied American soldiers to the sight of the bombing to investigate the second bomb, was overheard by an AFP correspondent discussing with one of his men how much protection money they would extort from the already traumatized Wahab family.
The U.S military is said to have extensive files on all Awakening members, including finger prints and retinal data. But, ultimately, being able to tell Awakening members apart may become the least of their worries.
Damn mercenaries are never satisfied.
John McCain has been extremely lucky with the surge escalation. Despite what he claims, any so-called success has not been due solely to the extra troops but rather a confluence of timely but tenuous events, as recognized by Senator Obama. What McCain refuses to acknowledge is the fact that success is based for the most part on circumstances beyond his control.
The game McCain and Petraeus are playing is indeed a dangerous one. Continuing to payoff the Awakening is a disaster waiting to happen, and it will ultimately be a disaster financed by American taxpayers. The Sunnis will want more and more money -- especially when/if the Shiites decide to once again join the fray. And, while the Sunnis are asking for more money, they’ll no doubt be socking cash away at the same time for a rainy day when they decide to turn on American troops.
And, to make the whole situation even more volatile, rumors concerning the demise of Muqtada al-Sadr are wildly exaggerated.
I wonder if McCain will see that coming.
Peace