McCain has made a mess of his campaign. We know that; his own party knows that; even our BFFs in the media seem to be getting the point. But something bigger has happened, and it's not getting attention -- yet.
I'll let Sherlock Holmes give you a clue:
"And a singularly consistent investigation you have made, my
dear Watson," said he. "I cannot at the moment recall any
possible blunder which you have omitted. The total effect of
your proceeding has been to give the alarm everywhere and yet
to discover nothing."
You may describe it as fighting the last war, or an overly aggressive defense, or outright lying. I frame it this way: McCain has exhausted his strategy; he has indeed given the alarm everywhere, and obtained nothing in return. He can't walk it back, and he can't keep it up.
When the Bush campaign Swiftboated Kerry, its tactic worked for two reasons. The first was that surrogates did the deed, and the campaign stayed -- officially at least -- out of it. The second was that Kerry did not respond effectively to the attack. The camapaign may have sensed he would react that way, or they may have been merely lucky.
McCain's attacks are different. First, he personally is articulating them, not his surrogates. There may be several reasons for this. He may not have an effective surrogacy for these arguments; he honestly may feel this is the right approach, and is ignoring the advice of others; or he may be a lousy campaigner.
There's a good chance that the last reason is the true one. McCain has not had a serious campaign challenge since 1982. Even in his first Senate run in 1986, he won by 20 percentage points. All of his talk about preferring to be the underdog is bogus. The 2008 primary is the first time since he began his political career that McCain has come from behind to win the prize. I don't see the evidence that he accomplished that on the strength of his campaigning; instead, I see his success as a result of a weak, divided and flawed Republican field. The only quality McCain brought to the primary was persistence.
Nothing he has done since has dispelled the notion that he is a less than compelling Republican candidate. He has not received the unequivocal endorsement of any conservative bloc -- not evangelicals, not fiscal conservatives, not so-called Reagan Democrats. While Obama has significantly consolidated his position, McCain still receives tepid support from his own party. That failure to consolidate is the hallmark of a lousy campaign. It leaves McCain the maverick without the party support essential to a Republican win in this electoral climate.
Secondly, McCain, unlike Bush in 2004, has not been lucky. Obama's inclination is to respond aggressively to attacks. Moreover, Obama has made two tactical moves that have neutralized McCain's attacks in advance. The first is that he has played aggressive offense early by his overseas trip and his pivot to domestic issues. Small missteps aside, Obama's campaign has been incomparably better than McCain's, and I suspect even McCain knows it.
Obama's other significant tactical move has been to forego public financing. He can spend what he needs to counteract any move McCain can make. McCain had only one way to counteract that advantage: that was the town hall debates, and when Obama didn't take the bait, McCain found no other lures in his creel.
The bottom line? If McCain has any chance of having his attacks stick, he has no other option but to remain negative. That means the debates will consist of one tomato after another. Obama's can utilize a very simple strategem to win the debates, and it's straight out of Sherlock Holmes, again. McCain might recognize it, being a betting man, but he won't be able to stop it or counter it:
"When you see a man with whiskers of that cut and the
'Pink 'un' protruding out of his pocket, you can always draw him
by a bet," said he.
Obama will lead McCain to attack. He will want McCain to attack. Then he will show how mean, petty and wrong McCain is. If McCain had pulled his punches, his attacks in the debates might have surprised Obama. Unfortunately for McCain, he's telegraphed his intentions. When a prize -- any prize -- is in contention, that's something you never do. Against a decent competitor, it's a sure way to lose.