Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is heading for the dustbin of history. The scandal-plagued Israeli leader has just announced he won't seek re-election and will turn over the Prime Ministership after his Kadima Primary elects a new leader on September 17. It is very likely that shortly thereafter Israel will go to new elections - probably by early 2009.
While there is no guarantee, having watched Israeli politics for years I would speculate that Israelis might just follow the American lead. That is If the US elects McCain, Israelis will elect Likud leader Bibi Netanyahu. If Americans elect Obama, Israelis are more likely to turn to the new Kadima party leader, possibly current Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.
A lot can change in the coming months, but there is a clear difference between Obama and McCain on the Middle East peace process. Obama clearly is more likely to pursue a vigorous diplomatic effort to promote a two-state solution. McCain is much more likely to follow a neo-conservative foreign policy that opposes "Land for Peace."
Oddly enough, American Jews will play a key role in the U.S election. While Obama will likely win the Jewish vote by a large margin and win most of those states with the largest Jewish populations (NY, NJ, MA, IL, and CA), the Jewish community could be a key swing constituency in at least 4 key swing states - PA, OH, MI and FL. Watch for both candidates to target the Jewish vote in Philadelphia, Cleveland, Detroit and South Florida. The Republicans know that most of the Jewish vote is an overwhelmingly Democratic vote based primarily on domestic issues, but they are trying to use Israel as a wedge issue to peel off Jewish votes. President Bush tried to do this in May when he spoke to the Israeli Knesset and implied that Obama would "appease" Iran.
I encourage everybody to help their Jewish friends and neighbors to understand that in seeking a two-state solution, Barack Obama is working to create a stronger, safer Israel that is at peace with its neighbors. Many have trouble understanding that supporting two-states is the best way to be pro-Israel. Israel's ultimate security will come about through a two-state solution that creates a viable Palestinian state alongside Israel, a negotiated solution that leads to peace with Syria, and negotiated deal that prevents a nuclear confrontation with Iran.
There are several organizations working to promote a two-state solution within the Jewish community. More information on all these issues can be found at the websites of J Street, Americans for Peace Now, Brit Tzedek v' Shalom (The Jewish Alliance for Justice and Peace).