Tom Bradley, Mayor of Los Angeles, ran for Governor of California in 1982 against GOP opponent George Deukmejian. The polls showed Bradley ahead of Deukmejian from 4-8 points. Exit polls showed Bradley winning. And in the end, Deukmejian, won. That the actual results of the election were so different from what all the polls had showed has been deemed the "Bradley effect."
Tom Bradley was black. George Deukmejian, white. The theory, postulated by researchers, was that a number of white voters basically lied to pollsters as to who they were going to vote for, in order to not appear prejudiced, and thus, skewing the polls significantly.
The point I want to make about the Bradley effect, isn't really as it relates just to polling. I want to mention it because I frequently come across people who will say stuff to me like.... "I don't care what race a person is, they can be white, black, green or polka dotted, it doesn't matter to me, I don't notice it." Are you kidding me, if a bunch of polka dotted people suddenly started teaching 4th grade at the nation's schools, folks wouldn't notice it? I call bullshit.
The real issue, isn't really about "polka dotted people" it about whether the differences amongst us are of any consequence. Do they matter in a substantive way?
The Bradley effect suggests a difference in a declared vote versus an actual vote. The forces that work upon a prospective voter to lie about their actual feelings suggests that, socially, they are afraid of how they are being perceived, but nevertheless privately feel and moreover, ACT differently than what they claim.
This public versus private reality of us as Americans is part of what the real challenge of this election is about.
What we claim to be as a nation, is often times very different than what our actions are as a nation.
What we claim to value as a people, is often very different from what our actions actually suggest we really value.
President Bush is polling at 13% job approval ratings, McCain currently holds (although it changes daily) many of Bush's positions on policy matters. And yet, oddly, Obama is only points ahead in current polls, factoring in the Bradley effect, he might just be even or even slightly behind.
Again, this election will say much about us as a nation. It will tell us a lot about what our collective psyche is really about. It will tell us much about where our real values lie based on our actions.
This election might be as much about how our brains work as it is about the "issues."