I, along with many other campaign junkies, eagerly await new polling numbers in battleground states, hoping desperately for positive numbers in states like Virginia, where we are trying to make history and elect Barack Obama with a broad-based coalition of voters. I log on to RealClearPolitics nearly every day, (along with this site, of course) to see new leads for Obama or to see his leads grow, as they have in the past few weeks as our party comes back together for the battle we share.
Major news organizations love quoting these averages in battleground states, saying that they pose problems for the Democratic Party in these states as Barack struggles to win over white, working class voters.
But really, Barack's leads in these states are significantly larger than these numbers indicate. Why? Because we are still looking at horrifyingly old data!
Take a gander, for example, at Michigan. We've heard much about how John McCain wants to make a run at Michigan, to take away a traditionally blue state from Obama and put him on the defensive. The current RCP average of Obama +2 points would seem to indicate that this is a legitimate viewpoint for the McCain camp to take. But click on the average and delve a little further. Currently five polls are indicated in the average, the latest three showing an average lead for Obama around six points. This is the lead established by the Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal Poll, also the largest poll in the sample. The two polls that show McCain up 4 points are from the month the May! Obviously, (and polling data supports this) the Democratic Party has consolidated much since then, as we sit here today celebrating America's independence on the 4th of July. I propose an Obama lead of 6 points as the legitimate average of recent, relevant polling data.
Look at New Hampshire. The state is quite simply out of reach for McCain, no matter what all the pundits say about his great relationship and history with the state, etc. Rasmussen, in the only poll conducted somewhat recently, (and one could argue that much has changed even since 6/18) has Obama leading by 11! The RCP average is only Obama +.7! Why? We have two smaller polls conducted in April showing McCain with leads. A more legitimate estimate (and that's all we can do with only one good poll) would be Obama +8 or +9.
You get the point here. I'll summarize the remaining "battleground" states and, as you can see, the real averages are a little better than the RCP ones.
Ohio=RCP Legitimate=Obama +4.5
Pennsylvainia=RCP Legitimate=Obama +7.7
Wisconsin=RCP Legitimate=Obama +9.3
Virginia=RCP Illegitimate due to Old VCU Poll=Obama +1, Tossup
Florida=RCP Legitimate=McCain +2.2
Missouri=Doesn't even have an average, only two polling firms polling, and SurveyUSA is considered by many to be illegitimate. Probably around McCain +5. But hard to know.
North Carolina=RCP Legitimate=McCain +8 is old, so probably closer to McCain +3.
Colorado=RCP Legitimate=Obama +5.3 is probably a little high, cause the Obama +9 poll is from February.
You see the point. A lot of the states that RCP shows as close aren't (New Hampshire, I'm looking at you!) and some states have leads too big and are closer than they appear, like Virginia.
The conclusion= Take a closer look at the numbers, and take these averages with more than one grain of salt.