"if John McCain wants to take me on , then I am ready for the fight". Wow that is a really effective line of attacks against the 2008 swiftboaters. Meanwhile the polls in the swing states-the only ones that count- continue to tighten, as Obama’s lead shrinks. This is after a successful European trip. I don’t think this is a coincidence.
Despite Obama's having a great two weeks abroad, McCain won the week. How did we get here? To answer that question we have to go back to a strategic mistake that Obama made a few months ago. It was then that David Brook wanted to start an organization as a counterbalance to the swiftboaters that were going to show up. Obama sent the signal that donors should not give to these types of organizations. He wanted to control the message and take the high road.
That might work if the media called out the swiftboaters, didn’t play McCain’s commercials endlessly in a loop, and Americans had time to research who was telling the truth. But Gore was the exaggerating liar who was taking money from the Chinese Buddhist while selling them state secrets. John Kerry was French effete flip flopper who created his own injuries in Vietnam while hating the troops. And now Obama is the uppity scary Muslim/radical black Christian, who is responsible for high oil prices, and who dissed the troops because he could not take cameras with him. Now Obama is on the defensive about playing the race card-exactly the headline McCain wanted. A week ago, everyone was talking about Obama's trip. Now Letterman has a top 10 list about Obama's arrogance. John McCain won the week.
Interestingly enough, McCain hasn’t really spent much money on the negative ads. The media has run them for free while discussing them-just like they did with Kerry. The GOP uses the same playbook every four years. If they were a football team, they would never score a touchdown. Kerry complained about Bush taking the low road. Obama is complaining about the low road. Nobody cares about their whining. Negative ads work.
Does Obama really expect the media to bail him out? Did he not watch the media pile on to Kerry and Gore? Which bring me back to the main point- he wants to run a positive campaign. Good for him. He should run a positive campaign. But he should have let the 527's raise money, so they could have run their ads, the media would be talking about them, and Obama could disavow them. Like McCain does.
JOHN MCCAIN-CRANKY OLD UNSTABLE CONFUSED CRAZY OLD MAN- HE WOULD BLOW THE WORLD UP. The media would be talking about that ad for about a month, while half of Americans would assume it is true. Obama would denounce it. It would get played on an endless loop, while the few liberals on TV could subtlety keep the narrative alive. The GOP would be apoplectic, as would members of the media. But so what? It would be "out there". The media will not run Obama’s boring fact based ads in a loop. Negative ads are sexy. Don’t get mad at me; I didn’t write the rules, but I understand them.
Now Obama is stuck with running positive ads using facts, while McCain, seeing how successful the negative ads have been this week, is cutting another round of negative ads. History has shown how that strategy plays out.