MS-Sen: Lloyd Gray from the Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal has taken an in-depth look at the U.S. Senate race in Mississippi (pitting incumbent Republican Roger Wicker against Democratic former Governor Ronnie Musgrove), the first remotely competitive Senate race in the Magnolia State since Trent Lott's first election against Wayne Dowdy in 1988.
Gray uses that 1988 race as a jumping-off point for his race analysis, noting that the key to the race (for Wicker, at least) lies in the First District of north Mississippi:
So what does Wicker need to do to win? A look at that 1988 race between Lott and Wayne Dowdy, both incumbent congressmen at the time, is instructive.
Lott, who represented the coastal 5th District, won the election by 74,000 votes over Dowdy, who represented the 4th District in southwest Mississippi. That entire margin of victory - plus an additional 4,000 votes - came in the counties of Lott's 5th District. He got 69 percent of the vote there, while Dowdy actually lost his own district.
The first thing Wicker has to do is carry the 1st District, and carry it big. In 1988, Lott and Dowdy basically split the rest of the state 50-50. But Lott had a higher national profile than Wicker, having been minority whip in the House and a visible member of Ronald Reagan's team, and Dowdy did not enjoy Musgrove's statewide name recognition. Additionally, there was no pull for black voters at the top of the ticket - Michael Dukakis, the Democratic nominee that year, didn't exactly excite them.
It's highly likely that Wicker will win the First District, which was his turf when he was in Congress. What remains unclear is how big his margins will be. Musgrove won the district in his first gubernatorial run in 1999, and Democrat Travis Childers won by eight points in the special election to succeed Wicker.
Musgrove should benefit, in the First District and across the state, from increased black Democratic turnout due to the candidacy of Barack Obama. If he can stay competitive in Wicker's base in the First District (which is actually the second-most Democratic-leaning of Mississippi's four districts), he stands an excellent shot at winning.
How can he do this? Cotton Mouth Blog's Jeff Walters offers some advice:
My advice to the Musgrove campaign. Go populist in north Mississippi. Listen to the message of Travis Childers and internalize it. By all means point out the special interest money that fuels Roger Wicker. Don't forget to point out his anti-veteran votes as well as anti-worker votes. That line of attack is a winner in north Mississippi.
It's critical for Musgrove to prevent Wicker from racking up big margins in North Mississippi, and if he has to run on economic populism to do so, so much the better.
GA-Sen: The DSCC is clearly pretty excited about Jim Martin's primary victory in the Georgia Senate race; they've already released an ad online hitting Saxby Chambliss for his ties to Big Oil.
Whether we'll see ads like this airing on TV will be determined by Martin's ability to amass the resources, financial and otherwise, to stay competitive in the race (Rasmussen currently shows him trailing by 11 points, a surprisingly thin margin).
Still, it's quite clear that the DSCC is watching this race closely.
OR-Sen: While Republican Sen. Gordon Smith likes to portray himself as a bipartisan moderate who works well with Democrats (touting his working relationship with folks like Barack Obama and John Kerry in his ads), the campaign of his Democratic opponent, Jeff Merkley, shows that Smith is no friend of Democrats when he's not campaigning for reelection. From the horse's mouth:
"I've beaten them more than they've beaten me," he says. "The Democratic Party is not my constituency. These are people that believe in socialism. I don't."
[The Oregonian, 8/22/06]
Smith has also had some nice words in the past for his new best friend, the good Senator Kerry:
Four years ago during the last presidential campaign, Smith told reporters that Kerry "looks French" and "advocates all kinds of socialism at home."
But in his new ad, Smith brags about reaching across the aisle to work with Kerry on legislation seeking to make home mortgages more affordable.
Sen. Kerry himself, however, will have none of it:
Kerry responded that he supports Democrat Jeff Merkley in the Oregon Senate race.
"Smith is my friend," Kerry said, "but the problem is that when it's come time to vote in the Senate he's been a much better friend of George Bush."
Rasmussen's latest poll, just out today, shows exactly why Smith is trying to recast himself as a Democrat: because it works. With July numbers in parentheses:
Smith (R) 47 (41)
Merkley (D) 39 (43)
We can't let Smith continue to plaster the airwaves with this nonsense about him being anything but a dyed-in-the-wool GOP stooge, happily repeating the most dishonest of talking points about socialism, France and what have you.
NC-Sen: Seemingly good news both for Barack Obama and for Senate nominee Kay Hagan in North Carolina; African-American voter registration is up substantially in the state, and is outstripping the increases in white voter registration:
Voter registration is growing at a faster rate in the black community than it is among white North Carolinians.
According to data reported Aug. 2 by the State Board of Elections, there are 1,224,545 black registered voters, compared with 1,114,798 on Election Day in 2004. That's an increase of 109,747, or 9.8 percent.
Meantime, there are 4,421,919 white registered voters, compared to 4,226,473 on Election Day in 2004. That's an increase of 195,446, or 4.6 percent.
Whether or not this increase will be enough to change North Carolina voter demographics sufficiently to affect the elections this fall is unclear, but it certainly can't hurt.
LA-Sen: Democrat-turned-Republican John N. Kennedy has a well-deserved reputation as the ultimate political flip-floppist, and as Daily Kingfish notes, this reputation is rather well-deserved.
Kennedy's latest peccadillo is as follows: he's been screaming to his supporters that incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu won't debate him. The thing is, he's ducking debates himself. From Ryan, addressed to Kennedy:
Your confusion is confounding. Because the Louisiana Municipal Association had a major conference in Lafayette that started on Thursday and ends today. And they invited you and Senator Landrieu to discuss the issues at a forum before their members. Senator Landrieu accepted. YOU, John "Wanna Be" Kennedy, DID NOT, instead choosing to campaign at the Hot Air Balloon Festival in Baton Rouge.
I guess because the TV cameras weren't going to be in Lafayette, it's not a debate.
As Mary Landrieu's campaign notes, John Kennedy is one confused politician:
CO-Sen: Public Policy Polling's latest shows Democrat Mark Udall with a six-point edge over beleaguered Republican Bob Schaffer. July numbers in parentheses:
Udall (D) 47 (47)
Schaffer (R) 41 (38)
Not a lot has changed since PPP's July poll, it seems. In fact, the polling numbers for this race have been remarkably consistent throughout the cycle.
House Races
PA-11: There is some rather troubling news in Pennsylvania, where rabidly anti-immigrant Republican Lou Barletta has released his second straight internal showing him beating longtime Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski:
Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) continues to be in the danger zone this cycle, according to a poll released by his opponent, Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R).
In the Susquehanna Polling and Research survey paid for by Barletta’s campaign, the mayor led the 12-term Congressman 47 percent to 42 percent, with 12 percent undecided. The poll of 400 likely voters was taken July 27-29 and had a margin of error of 5 points.
As Swing State Project notes, Kanjorski has seldom been tested in the past, and has been showing some weakness as a campaigner as he faces the stiffest challenge of his career. The race certainly leans Kanjorski's way, but there is serious cause for alarm in this district.
LA-01: In a district which gave George Bush 71% of the vote in 2004, and in which Republican Steve Scalise won his special-election victory in April by over 50 points, in a district sporting a PVI of R+18, a Democrat is on the air first.
From the campaign of Democratic candidate Jim Harlan, a wealthy self-funder who has already donated over $500K to his own campaign:
It's very, very difficult to see any Democrat winning a district like this one, but at the very least, Harlan should force Scalise to raise and spend everything he can. That's money that won't go to national Republicans, or to the NRCC, or to Louisiana's other Republican candidates.
AZ-03: Orange to Blue candidate Bob Lord diaried at Daily Kos today, hitting John Shadegg for his part in the pathetic Republican antics on offshore drilling.
John Shadegg is blowing off steam this week during his misnamed "Boston Tea Party," but it’s Arizona that’s getting burned.
Shadegg’s stunt in a dark House of Representatives showcases how he unfortunately is misleading Arizona on energy — twice this year he actually helped oil companies’ profits by opposing bipartisan efforts to make oil companies drill here. Instead, Shadegg is making Arizonans and the rest of the nation pay more for gas at the pump, while inflating Big Oil’s record profits.
Shadegg voted against the Drill Responsibility in Leased Lands Act on July 17, and he skipped a vote but said he would oppose the Responsible Federal Oil and Gas Lease Act on June 26.
Both bills would force oil companies to drill on lands they currently lease in the United States but refuse to use, driving up gas prices. This land equals the size of Colorado.
Check it out, and as always, feel free to give Bob Lord some love at the Orange to Blue ActBlue Page.
CT-04: Lord's fellow O2B candidate, Jim Himes, was today endorsed by the 25,000-member strong CSEA / SEIU Local 2001.
"We endorse politicians who support the things we believe in: good paying jobs, decent health care and retirement, quality public services, and improving the lives of working families," said Cathy Osten, a correctional lieutenant working for the Connecticut Department of Correction. "Jim Himes has committed to make these issues his priorities as the 4th District's Representative in Congress."
Himes faces his primary day tomorrow. He's expected to win handily.
MS-01: Cotton Mouth Blog suggests that the national Republican Party is bailing out on GOP nominee Greg Davis, who has already lost once this year to Democratic incumbent Travis Childers. From the Clarion-Ledger:
But political analysts say it'll be a challenge for Southaven Mayor Greg Davis to topple Travis Childers, the former Prentiss County chancery clerk whose victory in a May runoff re-energized Democrats on the state and national level.
"We'll be outspent," said Davis, who reported $53,916 in cash on hand as of June 30 compared to Childers' $160,976. "We will not be outworked. We're moving full steam ahead."
Analysts say there are other issues working against Davis, including lukewarm support from the GOP and a past campaign viewed as too negative. The National Republican Congressional Committee poured money into the runoff, but a NRCC spokesman said the group is not currently involved and would not say whether that will change.
Even Davis himself doesn't sound sanguine:
"I'm not betting my house on it, but I believe it's extremely doable," he said of Davis' chances.
This is an R+10 district, and the GOP is apparently considering bailing. Incredible.
On the web:
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page