This just in from BBC and Sky News; the news has not yet appeared on their respective websited, so I'm drawing upon live statements from the television channels: The Russian President, Dmitriy Medvedev has just ordered his troops to halt all operations in Georgia.
More below the fold.
Russia has already issued two demands on which peace is dependent: (1) That Georgia remove its military from positions from which it can continue shelling South Ossetia, and (2) that Georgia sign a legally binding international agreement not to use force in South Ossetia - which is more or less what Russia has been demanding this past decade.
Russia has already rejected the three-point French plan proposed by President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, claiming that it is unacceptable since it contains no mention of Georgian atrocities.
Note: Should it become clear that Georgia did engage in atrocities in South Ossetia, as Russia claims, this suddenly becomes a whole new political ballgame, since then Russia's intervention suddenly begins to resemble the US intervention in Serbia very closely indeed. This will be investigated by the international community, I hope, to ensure credibility
As per the Guardian:
Aelita Dzhioyeva, a lawyer who fled South Ossetia on Thursday, said she had managed to call relatives in the city on their mobile phones. "The situation is dire," she said. "People have no water, no electricity, no gas and no food."
She added: "My relatives told me Georgian soldiers burnt to death a family of seven people in their apartment. An 18-year-old boy who climbed out into the street for a few moments was shot dead by a sniper."
Marianna Chibirova said she had fled to Tskhinvali from her village and hid in a basement. "When the firing died down I ran out to the home of my relatives on a different street," she said. "I saw that the city hospital was completed destroyed, and around it lay corpses and injured people, a lot of them. And the injured lay there dying for three days because no one could get to them."
At a field hospital close to the registration point surgeons attended to wounded soldiers. One South Ossetian serviceman was furious that Russia had not intervened to help earlier.
"Where was Russia?" he shouted. "Where were the Russian troops for the first three days? Now they say on television that Russia defended us, they saved South Ossetia, but that's rubbish.
"Russian tanks only came this morning when we had already pushed the Georgian forces out of Tskhinvali. We did it – Ossetians, ourselves, at the cost of many lives. And Russia came only at the end to take up positions that we had already won. And now I'm lying here and my friends go on dying there."
(http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/10/georgia.russia5)
And a quote from another article by The Guardian:
The Russians concentrated on claims of atrocities by Georgian soldiers when they took control of South Ossetia. They claimed women were herded into houses which were then burned down, people were crushed with tanks, prisoners had their throats slit, grenades were thrown into bomb shelters. Russian soldiers are no strangers to war crimes. They did similar things to Chechens each time they recaptured Grozny. But if Russia substantiates its claims, it should make those who support the Georgian leader pause for thought. If Russian tanks stop at the borders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the verdict of history will hinge on what happened in Tskhinvali last week.
*
As for accusations of seeking regime change in Georgia, a Russian foreign ministry spokesman categorically denied these claims, attacking the US by saying that Russia 'desires peace in the region' and that (I paraphrase) 'Russia is not in the habit of regime change; that is more up the US' alley.' (per Sky News).
Sergei Lavrov (per CNN):
We have no plans to throw down any leadership," Lavrov said. "It is not part of our culture. It is not what we do."
However, Lavrov said Moscow did not trust the country's leadership.
He said Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's "barbaric and brutal action" had undermined trust in Georgia.
Lavrov also had harsh words for the West, saying he was "deeply disappointed" Western powers had not talked Georgia out of attacking South Ossetia last Thursday.
*
Whatever ulterior motives Russia may have in this intervention, they have been extremely politicaly savvy: If Georgia has indeed engaged in ethnic cleansing then the Kosovo precedent has given them a casus belli (I did say that overturning decades of international law by allowing Kosovo to become independent would be a bad idea, now, didn't I, and was soundly criticised for it. You are free to check my comments to see the argumentation, if You like), and the fact that they have not changed Georgia's government or occupied the country when they could have done so, keeping to their stated purpose, does tend to strengthen their credibility. We might have got a show of military strength which adds to the credibility of Russia's word and guarantees, which will not be without its political consequences.
Meanwhile, the lesson for Georgia has been clear, bought at enormous material cost and a high cost in lives: If you have a powerful neighbour into whose face, with justification or not, you constantly spit, and violate a guarantee which it gave, calling its bluff, you can reasonably expect retribution.
The only thing that remains to be seen now, in my view, is (1) what kind of a deal can be brokered regarding Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and in my view the former will likely become independent while the later will eventually be annexed by Russia, (2) how to broker lasting peace between Russia and Georgia, and (3) whether Georgia engaged in atrocities against the civilian population. Time will tell - and I will be most interested in the news for the next few days.
Update - This just on the BBC's site: http://news.bbc.co.uk/...
Sky News has woken up and drunk its coffee, it seems: http://news.sky.com/...
Update 2: Someone over the pond's an insomniac, it seems. CNN has the story as well. http://edition.cnn.com/...
Update 3: As per CNN, one of the three pipelines had been damaged in the fighting, but there was no oil in it at the time.
Before the Russian president said he would halt military operations, a Georgian Interior Ministry official said Tuesday that Russian bombs hit one of the three pipelines carrying oil to the Black Sea port of Poti. There was no oil in the pipeline at the time, the ministry official said.
Russia has (per CNN) also issued demands for a demilitarised zone along the South Ossetian border.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an earlier news conference Tuesday that Russia wanted a demilitarized zone to be created in Georgian territory before a cease-fire took effect. Watch Lavrov speak about Georgia »
The zone had to be big enough to prevent Georgia's military from again attacking the breakaway province, Lavrov said.
Update 4: As per the AP (hat tip to peace voter) Russia reserves the right to 'quell any pockets of resistance within South Ossetia' and advises that 'Saakashvili should go' since they do not consider him a credible partner but are not forcing that part.
Update 5: Hat tip to ActivistGuy. He has informed me that Mikhail Gorbachev has written an article regarding Georgia for the Washington Post (link here)
Note: As far as I know the length of the excerpts does not violate fair use. If they do, please remind me and I'll shorten them.