Could there be an October surprise for McCain in his home state? I ran across this juicy tidbit regarding the campaign in Arizona:
There is a wall of silence surrounding potential plans by the Barack Obama campaign to extend its reach into Arizona, which state Democrats have insisted will happen eventually but which so far hasn't materialized.
While rumors are circulating that a state director for the Illinois senator's Arizona efforts has been chosen, neither the Obama camp nor the Arizona Democratic Party is talking. The national campaign has failed to respond to numerous requests for information regarding its designs for the state, and Emily DeRose, the state party's spokeswoman, flatly refused to answer any questions on the issue, even declining to say why she couldn't talk about it.
Me likes the sound of this...
Arizona is ripe for the picking. Arizona was recently listed as one of the most electorally competitive states this fall:
"Arizona is one of the most interesting states in the country politically," said James Pindell, the Managing Editor of Politicker.com. "Not only is it the home of John McCain, but also of a state that is growing in its influence in Washington."
Three of Arizona's U.S. House districts -- the 1st, the 5th and the 8th -- were all ranked in the top 59 of races nationwide in terms of competitiveness. The 8th Congressional District, currently occupied by Democrat Gabrielle Giffords, is the highest ranked at 34.
In addition, the dynamics of Arizona are similar to other Western states, such as New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. We only have one major problem:
Arizona would have been in play if McCain were not from the state, political scientists say. The Arizona senator has maintained double-digit leads in state polls, and history shows it's rare for a state to reject a hometown candidate. Even so, Democrats hope to make the race competitive. Obama will soon open an office in Arizona, said Jim Messina, Obama's chief of staff.
"I think we'll win in a lot of places that people don't expect us to, and we hope Arizona is one of them," Messina said.
I still think Arizona is in play, and at the very least it will be a close election here. Our popular Democratic Governor, Janet Napolitano, endorsed Obama early on before our primary, and even the McCain campaign has designated Arizona as a swing state. McCain has also been forced to campaign in Arizona:
But on a Monday morning this month, Mr. McCain campaigned in a local diner, after a Sunday stop at his campaign office here, where he urged volunteers to "make sure we get our voters registered, to make sure we are organized."
In the sea of uncertainty that defines American politics, presidential candidates have generally been able to count on the residents of their home state, Al Gore’s loss of Tennessee in 2000 being a notable exception.
But a variety of factors have made Mr. McCain’s chances in Arizona less assured than they ordinarily would seem, which his campaign has acknowledged.
Even Arizona's Republican Party Chairman, Randy Pullen, appears to have preferred Rudy Guliani over McCain before the primaries. (A variety of reports indicate there is no great love between the two). As an Arizona resident, I can tell you there's a general lack of enthusiasm for McCain in his home state.
Recent polls have been all over the map. A recent Rasmussen Poll had McCain up by 16 points in Arizona, but another recent local pollster, the Rocky Mountain Poll, showed McCain lagging behind in Arizona's most populous county, Maricopa County, while Obama was gaining in key demographics. Here is the latest Pollster.com graph for Arizona:
So what the heck does Obama have planned for Arizona, if anything? This report continues to be tantalizing:
In late June, the Obama campaign told PolitickerAZ.com that they had "no immediate plans" for the state. Two months later, they aren't talking at all, which coupled with DeRose's (the Arizona Democratic Party spokesperson) uncharacteristic reticence gives credence to the belief that an Arizona operation is being constructed. How extensive it will be, what shape it will take and who will helm it, though, all remain open questions.
I wish Obama would make a campaign stop here in Arizona to rattle McCain's cage, and make him defend his home turf!