The surge is working. The surge is working. The surge is working. The surge is working. The surge is working. The surge is working. The surge is working. The surge is working. The surge is working. The surge is working.
-John McCain, when asked to summarize his campaign message.
Okay, so I made that up. I think. But the rest of this diary is serious.
Note: The contents of this diary were originally published at Upon the Gears, a political blog.
Well, Senator McCain sure wants us to think the surge is working. And so, it seems, does the rest of the media. Thanks to McCain’s stubborn repetition, the phrase, "the surge is working" has nearly become accepted fact (I’m looking at you, Joe Klein).
But hey, let’s not forget that McCain and the traditional media are pretty unreliable when it comes to facts (although, in their defense, they are excellent at forming narratives), and I think its time to take a look at "the facts on the ground".
Believe it or not, the goal of the surge was not simply to decrease the casualty rate among American forces and civilians. It was supposed to allow the Iraqi government to achieve a political solution that would allow Iraq to unify as a nation and move itself forward. Such a solution has never been achieved.
Instead, some interesting events took place.
* Baghdad fell victim to an ethnic cleansing, and a city that was once predominantly Sunni is now mostly Shiite.
* 100,000 refugees fled the city.
* City violence decreased as insurgents simply moved to rural areas to fight.
* 80,000 Iraqi militiamen who were once our allies decided to switch sides and get on our payroll.
Doesn’t seem like much of a political solution, does it.
However, to surge supporters, that just doesn’t seem to matter anymore as long as the violence is down and less Americans are being killed. This is foolish. Yes, it is good that less shots are being fired, but how can one assume that the streets of Iraqi cities will remain less violent if a political solution is never achieved? Sunnis and Shiites still hate each other, Kurds still want independence, and we Americans are still dealing with a time bomb. It is still ticking, but we cannot hear it at the moment and have chosen to forget about it.
Senator Obama continues to say that the surge did not meet its goals, and that he would still not support it if he knew back then what he knew today. He may be taking a lot of flak for those positions, but he is absolutely right.