For those who want some comfort in this apparently tightening race, take heart that McCain seems to consistently poll below 50% in general election matchups with Obama in his home state. This is rather pathetic for someone who served as Arizona's senator for over 20 years. He should be coasting away to victory in his home state. But alas, no...
The new Cronkite-Eight poll, run out of Arizona State University, was just released and here are the current highlights:
Republican Sen. John McCain continues to lead Democratic challenger Sen. Barack Obama by 10 percentage points in Arizona, according to a new Cronkite/Eight Poll conducted August 14-16. The statewide poll of 402 registered voters found that 40 percent support McCain, 30 percent favor Obama, 2 percent support independent candidate Ralph Nader and less than 1 percent will vote for Libertarian candidate Bob Barr. Twenty-eight percent were undecided.
These poll results are similar to the June Cronkite-Eight poll:
When asked whether they would vote for Sen. John McCain or Obama, 38 percent said they would vote for McCain and 28 percent said they would vote for Obama. 34 percent were undecided.
In the newest poll results, I'm surprised that Barr is not polling higher in this libertarian-minded state. What's more shocking is the 28% of voters in Arizona that are still undecided in this election. Make no doubt about it--that's a referendum on John McCain. The home state favorite is well--not so much a favorite to convince a majority of voters to support him yet. The pollster, however, had a different take on all the undecided voters here:
About 15 percent of voters are usually undecided this close to the election, he said.
Merrill attributes the large percentage of undecided voters to the long, divisive primary season on the Democratic side and the fact that neither of the main parties has held its conventions. The Democratic National Convention begins Monday, and the Republican National Convention starts Sept. 1.
More people will start making up their minds after the conventions, Merrill said.
I don't buy it. McCain should be theoretically running circles around Obama in Arizona. For example, take this question in the poll:
ASK ONLY IF WILL VOTE FOR MCCAIN: Would you say you are voting more for McCain or more against Obama?
More for McCain 60%
More against Obama 30%
Don’t know/no opinion 10%
30% is a strong anti-Obama vote, and 60% does not indicate a great love for McCain within Arizona.
Compare this to the enthusiasm for Obama supporters:
ASK ONLY IF WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA: Would you say you are voting more for Obama or more against McCain?
More for Obama 76%
More against McCain 16%
Don’t know/no opinion 8%
Unfortunately, Arizona voters haven't quite waken up to the negative campaign that McCain is running (probably because we don't see any of the ads unless they are premiered on cable news):
About one-third of Arizona voters said both candidates were running negative campaigns, with more voters perceiving McCain as running a negative campaign (38 percent) than Obama (26 percent).
The results of this poll were discussed with the pollster in a local PBS news show last night. Although it was reported in the news show that most of those undecided voters are Independent voters, it is not listed in the poll results. Why is this important? Well, as reported in the news show last night, the "decided" Independent voters are currently equally divided between McCain and Obama in Arizona. And Independent voters in Arizona make up about 1/3 of the voters here and they are continuing to register in high numbers:
State election voter-registration numbers show a 46 percent increase in the number of people registered outside of the Democratic, Republican, Libertarian or Green parties.
At 19.5 percent, Democrats had the second-highest increase in numbers between July 2003 and June of this year statewide.
Republicans rose 14 percent and Libertarians 13.6 percent; Green Party members were not counted before this year. Similar percentages were seen within Maricopa County (the State's largest county).
Those Independent voters in Arizona will swing the election here. The Republican Party anticipates they will swing their way:
Camilla Strongin, director of communications for the Arizona Republican Party, said they are keeping a watch on independent voters but also are not worried.
"We believe that independents break Republican," she said. "Historically, they have been conservative on more matters."
They did NOT swing for the Republicans in Arizona in 2006, when the in-state delegation picked up more Democratic seats and two new congressional Democrats were also sent to congress from Arizona (Gabrielle Giffords and Harry Mitchell).
Again, according to the pollster, turnout is going to be crucial in this election for the final results:
It will be interesting to see if the Obama campaign chooses to campaign heavily in Arizona. Voter turnout also will be an important factor in the final outcome of this contest. Polls are not very good at determining who will and will not vote. A higher turnout will probably help Obama more than McCain. Another factor will be whether the Latino vote in Arizona turns out in significant numbers.
According to Arizona's Secretary of State, they are predicting an unheard of turnout rate of 85% during the general election this fall. Most of this will be through early vote by mail ballots, which will start around October. In addition, a a recent Rocky Mountain Poll of Arizona's most populous county, Maricopa County, showed McCain starting to lag behind, and more importantly losing the Latino vote substantially to Obama:
Finally, even though Latino voters have in the past displayed a tendency to favor Democratic candidates, John McCain has long been able to attract from a quarter to a third of their vote. This appears not to be the case today. Seventy-nine percent of Latinos in this survey say they will vote for Barack Obama while McCain’s share registers at only nine percent.
So given that McCain is polling beneath 50% pretty consistently in his home state, three things need to happen for Obama to win in Arizona:
- High voter turnout (likely to happen as predicted by the Arizona Secretary of State)
- High turnout of Latino voters swinging towards Obama. (State and national polls show him consistently leading with this demographic.)
- Independent voters swinging towards Obama (In 2006, they swung to the Democrats in Arizona).
Don't be surprised if the results are a squeaker on election night for Arizona.