In the last couple of days, Barrack O'Bama's projected electoral count has fallen below 270 in the sites I check everyday.
Just now FiveThirtyEight.com reports that McCain is winning a small majority of the simulations i.e. Win % for BO is now 47.9 vs McCain's 52.1%.
What does this all mean ?
The sky is falling.
More below the fold.
- The Fourth site I visit first thing in the morning is electoral-vote.com. For the first time after BO wrapped up the nomination, he has fallen below 270 electoral votes.
- The third site I visit first thing in the morning is Pollster.com. Obama has fallen below 270, even though he still has double the number of strong Dem votes than McWorse.
- The second site I visit first thing in the morning is RealClearPolitics.com. Just as above even though Obama still leads McWorse when tossups are considered, without tossups he loses.
- The first site I visit first thing in the morning is FiveThirtyEight.com - both for the numbers - but more importantly for the interesting analysis. And just now when I when to the site again (like I do after work) - it had happenned.
What does it all mean ?
The Sky Is Falling.
Apart from that, the important thing to note is that, I was not surprised by all this - though a little disheartened. That is because - unlike many people here who went LaLaLaLa with fingers in their ears - the signs of weakening have been clear to everyone from sometime.
We should get back to being the "reality based community" and not try to explain away what all the polls tell us - and differentiate between trends and noise. And get back to work.
Thats what it all means.