Lots of people have been in panic/extra-anxious mode due to the last week's polling (mostly of LV) showing the presidential race tightening.
Well, here are two reputable pollsters reaffirming Obama's 3-point national lead among REGISTERED VOTERS:
CBS/NYTimes Poll(pdf file)
NBS-WSJ Poll(pdf file)
more...
IMO some of the best news from CBS?NYTimes:
• Obama leads McCain among Democrats, liberals and moderates, African Americans, voters under age 45, and women.
Most Clinton supporters from the primaries are backing Obama, and this is true of both men and women who supported Clinton in the primaries. Half of the women who have not put their support behind Obama are undecided, while half are supporting McCain.
• McCain leads among Republicans and independents, conservatives, and voters age 45 and over. McCain leads among whites overall (both men and women), among white evangelicals, and working class whites.
[snip]
About half of all voters – 51% - say they have been paying a lot of attention to the campaign this year, but that doesn’t mean that they are paying a lot of attention NOW. Only about a third – 36% - admit they have been paying a lot of attention in the last few weeks. This lessened recent attention is shared by both Republicans and Democrats, by Obama supporters and McCain voters.
[snip]
(Who'd) Make right decisions on Foreign policy?
Obama McCain
Very confident 18% 23%
Somewhat confident 37 43
Not confident 44 33
But McCain has a disadvantage here too. Perhaps because of his support for the Bush Administration’s policy in Iraq, or the perception by 47% -- nearly half -- of voters that McCain will continue Administration policies in general, it is Obama who has the edge in perceptions of economic decision-making ability, which has been voters’ biggest concern this year.
In addition, voters are twice as likely to say that Obama will improve the United States’ image abroad as to say McCain will.
Emphasis added.
From the NBC-WSJ concern troll poll:
- From what you have seen or heard, do you feel that either of the candidates for president is running a negative campaign? (IF "YES," ASK:)
Which candidate do you think is running a negative campaign–– John McCain or Barack Obama? + *
Yes, John McCain is running a negative campaign .... 29
Yes, Barack Obama is running a negative campaign ... 5
Both are running negative campaigns (VOL) .......... 19
No, neither is a negative campaigner ....................... 41
Not sure ............................................................... 6
Also of note in the NBC-WSJ poll is the comparison to Kerry's and Gore's perceived negativity late in their campaigns. Obama's way ahead of them both.
Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
October 16 – 18, 2004 +
Yes, George W. Bush is running a negative campaign ..15
Yes, John Kerry is running a negative campaign ...........15
Yes, both are running negative campaigns (VOL) .........45
No, neither is running a negative campaign ...................23
Not sure ......................................................................2
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
July 2000 +
Yes, George W. Bush is a negative campaigner ......8
Yes, Al Gore is a negative campaigner .................13
Yes, both are negative campaigners (VOL) ...........16
No, neither is a negative campaigner .....................57
Not sure ................................................................6
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
[snip] And McCain's death-knell...
Please tell me how closely you believe John McCain would follow and support George W. Bush's programs and policies if elected president––very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all.
8/08+** 7/08+ 6/08+ 3/08+
Very closely .......... 33 32 30 29
Somewhat closely... 44 45 46 48
Not too closely......... 18 16 16 13
Not closely at all ..... 4 5 6 6
Not sure ................ 1 2 2 4
** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B). + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
Bottomline? Obama's sitting pretty as McCain is about to be limited to spending $84million after his convention and it appears that his (and the GOP's) unfettered spending have not moved McCain's numbers anywhere near where they need to be to sustain the coming post-convention air and ground war.
Yes, there's lots of work to be done but if anyone should be panicking it's the Thugs and their media sycophants.
UPDATE: TPM reports 6:1 Voters See McCain As More Negative