As we clutch our phones, the McCain campaign has spent the last 36-48 hours working on damage control. So much so, that they're now pre-emptively bracing themselves for next week's Democratic bash in Denver.
Today, the Huffington Post has a memo from the McCain campaign setting the expectations for next week's convention and its aftermath: a 15 point bump for Obama, which is absolutely laughable.
What's even more laughable is the seething anger through which this memo is written.
Monday marks the beginning of the Democratic National Convention in Denver. A combination of factors makes this particular convention historic on many levels. Democrats have just completed an incredibly compelling primary cycle that has both energized and divided the Democratic Party. Because of the unique nature of the Democratic primary, we believe Obama will receive a significant bump from his convention.
Ehhh, fair enough.
This cycle mirrors Bill Clinton's Democratic convention in 1992: A historic 16-point bump. Barack Obama is more similarly situated to Bill Clinton in 1992 than any other candidate in recent history. Bill Clinton was a new candidate on the national scene; he was running in a "change" oriented election cycle and the economy was voters' top issue -- a dynamic he was able to capitalize on. He received a 16-point bump coming out of his convention. Obama is also a "new" candidate in a change-oriented environment. And, like Bill Clinton, he will spend the convention presenting himself as the agent of change who will fix the economy.
Believe it or not, I actually think Obama resembles Ronald Reagan more than Bill Clinton. So does Obama... remember that Reno Gazette interview that got him in so much trouble with the Clintons? Even a number of Reagan advisers see some similarities. Anyway, back to business.
Obama will correct his underperformance with Hillary Clinton's primary voters and emerge with a much more cohesive base. This convention gives Obama a platform to unite his base. There continues to be a divide in the Democratic base: Between 10-15% of Democrats are voting for McCain or sitting on the fence. In target states, that number is even higher, between 15-20% in many surveys. The Obama campaign knows that winning or losing in states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania depends on Obama's ability to bring these voters home. If his convention successfully showcases Hillary Clinton and heals the wounds from the primary, he will move large groups of voters in those key places.
In other words, the McCain campaign is predicting that ALL of Hillary Clinton's supporters will snap to and embrace Obama, beginning Friday morning. If that happens, and all the wounds are healed, then yes Obama will receive a substantial bounce. Of course, if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. The grand finale:
Obama's stadium address on Thursday -- the 45th anniversary of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I Have A Dream" speech -- will result in effusive and overwhelming press coverage. On Thursday, Obama will give a great speech, as has been his trademark. The press will sing his praises and remark on his historic address and Obama's place in history. For example, The Associated Press today published an article comparing the historic nature of the addresses - a week before Obama's speech. This coverage will be impenetrable and will undoubtedly impact the polls.
We believe Obama will see a significant bump, and believe it is reasonable to expect nearly a 15-point bounce out of a convention in this political environment.
Ah yes, the celebrity will take the stage and wow everyone's pants off. And celestial choirs.... nevermind. Can't you just see the staffer who wrote this memo sitting there, getting angrier and angrier over the liberal media who just adore The Messiah? He's gonna give a great speech - just words - and those fuckers will just EAT IT UP.
And that will result in a 15 point bounce.
Sure it will.