We'll know in a few hours who Obama's Vice Presidential running mate will be, but rumours of Secret Service protection are flying fast, and the punditry is leaning heavily towards Joe Biden. Some have wondered if this news break invalidates the text message thing, but I'd say no, if for no other reason than at this hour most people are going to bed, not staying up on the internet like I am (and, depending on when you're reading this, you are). Below, some random last-minute thoughts on what Biden being picked would mean.
All these have the preface of whether or not the Joe rumour is true, obviously.
- If Joe is the VP, what becomes of his Senate candidacy? Lieberman stayed on the ballot in 2000 (in what turned out to be a prudent move for him, though, in retrospect, perhaps regrettable for the party), but I'd imagine that in the current climate such a move would be seized on as a point of weakness, and, divorcing optics, Joe would, if victorious nationally, be denying Delawar...er...Delawarans(?) the chance to pick their representative for two years. If he's the VP nominee, he should step aside. Paging Beau Biden...
- The two other most-speculated-about candidates, Mr. Kaine and Mr. Bayh, both came from would-be swing states (albeit ones heavily weighted toward the other guys), and a lot of the buzz around them revolved around the idea of using them to sway locals. If Biden's the man, then Obama has rejected the idea of using a favourite son to try and curry favour in a single state (since, let's face it, Delaware isn't a big concern).
- Corollary to the second, but hugely signficant on its own (and, depending on McCain's choice, even moreso), it breaks the whole "regional balance" formula, or, at least, the traditional North/South axis. As previously mentioned, if Biden is the man, and McCain picks Romney, which is looking very likely at this point, this is the first election in a very long time (possibly ever?) where there was no Southerner on either ticket. Given that Obama is making a play for parts of the South (albeit longshots in many cases), it's perhaps an indication that he recognizes it will ultimately come down to whether he can sell himself, not using a white dude as a carrot.
- Finally, Biden, for better or worse, plays into the "experience" theme; he's a Cheney, except not, you know, evil. Expect the Republicans to hit on this as a sign of Obama's own inexperience (or else, as dampening his "change" message); again, as with the South thing, I don't know that the VP pick will affect this much; it's all about the candidate himself.
I think Joe would be a good choice, personally.
In a few hours, we'll know for sure.