This was really a thing of beauty. I have been absolutely amazed at how the Obama campaign has somehow had four straight news cycles going in to the convention with almost perfect news stories: two days of House-gate to get people pissed at McCain, and two of Biden to get everyone fired up (and while it's a conservative choice, it sure seems to be a good choice).
But the most amazing part is that, down to the minute, the timing has been almost completely perfect. Follow me along...
Thursday: This all started with a gift. House-gate is a big nail in the coffin of the "Obama is an elitist and McCain is a regular guy" meme. A major nail. The CW has since been that Obama may have delayed his Veep decision to let this play out (and the great thing is that it is continually playing out, which is great). So there was nothing on the veepstakes on Thursday.
Which was fine. Thursday was all houses, all the time (and with as many houses as McCain has, it was a lot of houses, all the time). It gave us very few clues, however, as to who would be picked. If there was a $250m man on the D side (like Mittens) he'd probably be excused, but other than that, there was nothing but speculation. Biden was always up top, but never at the top.
In the evening, we thought the SMS and email might come. But they didn't. Which was fine, because as we waited anxiously, the media found more and more houses John McCain owns. So we went in to...
Friday: I thought I might wake up to a Veep. Nope. I sat all day on Friday checking the headlines every ten minutes, and while there was a lot of speculation as to who would not be the candidate (Bayh, Kaine) it took a while until arrows started pointing towards Biden. We had a news cycle where we transitioned from "McCain owns a bunch of houses" to "McCain owns a bunch of houses, doesn't care about you, and by the way there seem to be a bunch of guys who might be vice president." All day Friday (and in to the Friday evening news dump) we didn't know.
There was the Chet Edwards speculation. That went almost nowhere, although his numbers jumped on Intrade for a few minutes. A day ago, we had on the political markets:
Biden: 40 climbing to 60
Edwards (Chet): 20
Clinton: 15
Bayh: 15
Clark, Kaine, Sebelius: 5-10
and others.
Which meant that whilst Biden was the front runner, it was way up in the air.
This went in to the night. By the time the runners were finished running on tape delay in Beijing and most of us had had our requisite Friday night libations and ready to retire, the rumor mill really got going. Around midnight (ET) the rumors got running and it appeared Biden was the choice.
But seriously, despite their best efforts, the media had to break this big story after most everyone had gone to bed? Pwned.
Of course, it didn't keep a bunch of us from staying up to all hours, commenting ad naseum (when have there been four after-midnight open threads on a non-election night? Nearly 2000 comments between 11:00 and 4:00 PDT.) until the text finally came.
So that leads us to...
Saturday, which is typically a slow news day. So today Obama gets to dominate the headlines, with a big speech introducing the new Veep, and go in to the Sunday news programs with more than enough time to prepare for all Biden, all Obama (and hopefully some of all of McCain's houses) all the time.
McCain is in a major bind. Obama tied up the media Thursday and Friday with the houses. Saturday and Sunday are Biden, and next week is the convention. That is EIGHT days out of the limelight for McCain, with the Obama campaign framing the message. For a week-plus, all anyone will remember from McCain will be how many houses he owns. Let me repeat that, with about eighty days left until the convention, eight of them 10 percent of the race — will have two memes:
• Look how great Obama and Biden are!
• Look how many houses McCain owns — he can't even remember.
So looking ahead:
Sunday will be Biden day. Biden doesn't upstage the convention, but he'll get some good introductions this weekend. The press knows him and seems to like him. The few minutes given to McCain will probably talk mostly about houses.
Monday to Thursday will be all Dems, all the time, culminating with 75,000 in a huge stadium with the plains and mountains beyond.
Then it's Labor Day weekend, and then the Republicans have their chance here in Saint Paul (we're NOT excited about that, but at least the bars are going to be staying open late). But after most of two weeks with a pro-Obama, anti-McCain news cycle, they'll need some fireworks. And unless one of McCain's houses has a gas leak, I doubt they'll have them.