It is no secret that Republicans currently have the upper hand in the battle for public opinion on the issue of offshore drilling. Faced with skyrocketing gasoline prices that pose a genuine threat to their standard of living, Americans are quick to embrace any policy that appears to promise relief, and they are quick to anger over any politician who appears to stand in the way of such relief. Democrats, intimidated by the public mood and apparently ready to "compromise" on the issue, may be missing an important opportunity to go on the offensive, but leadership from the Obama campaign would be needed to pull it off.
Key Democrats, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and longstanding Colorado environmentalist Mark Udall, have signaled their intent to back down on President Bush’s call for offshore drilling as a solution to the energy problem. This strategy will allow the Democrats to avoid the fallout of American wrath over the high price of gasoline. With the election around the corner, feeling that they have an edge as long as they make no major blunders, the Democrats are "playing it safe."
However, the facts indicate that offshore drilling will bring no relief in gasoline prices. According to the Department of Energy, "access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030." Pelosi had it right when she referred to offshore drilling as a solution to our energy problems as "just a hoax." McCain had it right in 2006, when he said that offshore drilling "would not have an immediate effect on gasoline prices." Therefore, in the long run, the current Democratic strategy will be viewed as another instance in which Democrats did not have the backbone to lead.
Alternatively, Democrats could go on the offensive. McCain’s appeal is largely about "integrity," projecting an image of someone who does not cave in to pressure and has been willing to battle powerful interests, citing his leadership in opposing pork barrel spending. But properly advertised by the Obama campaign, McCain’s position on offshore drilling could seriously damage the "integrity" image. On this issue, he is vulnerable to not only the "flip-flopping" accusation, but also the claim that he is intentionally misleading the American people. An effective, widespread ad campaign by Obama could make the case that offshore drilling will not help the American people, and that John McCain knows that.
On August 19, Senator Edward Markey, Chairman of the House Select Committee on Energy Dependence and Global Warming, sent a letter to President Bush, pointing out the following facts. American oil companies currently export one tenth of the total oil consumed in the U.S. annually. U.S. oil exports increased last year from 1.433 million barrels a day to 1.806 million barrels a day. The amount of oil (200,000 barrels a day) projected by the Energy Department to be produced from the administration's offshore drilling solution by 2030 at the height of production is only one ninth of the amount of oil U.S. companies currently export each day. The Democrats need to drive home the key point that although offshore drilling is being promoted by the Republicans as a solution to American gasoline prices, that oil will be owned by global companies, not the American people.
The Republicans have succeeded in simplistically associating offshore drilling with relief at the gas pump. The Obama campaign has an opportunity to attack this notion as a lie to the American people and to point out that McCain’s campaign has strong connections to the oil industry, calling into question McCain’s "integrity" appeal.
In September, Republicans can block the annual extension on the ban on offshore drilling without Democratic support. But with an effective attack, revealing the truth about the effects of this policy, Democrats can benefit in November, turning the Republican position to their favor.
However, this opportunity will be lost if Pelosi and other leading Democrats back down on offshore drilling. Obama cannot mount a strong attack on the issue if leading Democrats associate themselves with it. He will require Democratic unity in order to show that he can lead on this issue.