Is this election going to be the close election all the pundits are talking about? No way, this has landslide written all over it. But as long as people focus on national polling numbers instead of the state by state polls, it will look like a close election.
Here are my predictions. Obama will definitely win:
- Hawaii (4)
- Washington (11)
- Oregon (7)
- California (55)
- New Mexico (5)
- Colorado (9)
- Minnesota (10)
- Wisconsin (10)
- Illinois (21)
- Michigan (17)
- Ohio (20)
- Pennsylvania (21)
- Maine (4)
- Vermont (3)
- Connecticut (7)
- Rhode Island (4)
- Massachusetts (12)
- New York (31)
- New Jersey (15)
- Delaware (3)
- Maryland (10)
- D.C. (3)
- Nebraska (at least 2 of the 5)
That's 284 Electoral Votes - enough to be the next President.
However, I think it is highly likely that he will also win:
- Alaska (3)
- Iowa (7)
- Missouri (11)
- West Virginia (5)
- Virginia (13)
- New Hampshire (4)
- North Carolina (15)
That's another 58 EVs or a total of 342 EVs.
Additionally, I think he is very capable of turning:
- Montana (3)
- Idaho (that's right, Idaho - 4)
- North Dakota (3)
- Nevada (5)
- Arkansas (6)
- Louisiana (9)
- Indiana (yeah, Indiana, too 11)
That's another 41 EVs for a total of 383 EVs.
Next, I think it is going to be much closer for Obama than any pundits suggest in:
- Kansas (6)
- Mississippi (6)
- Georgia (15)
- South Carolina (8)
- Kentucky (8)
- Tennessee (11)
- Florida (27)
For another 81 EVs.
And, there could be surprises in:
- Arizona (10)
- Oklahoma (7)
- Texas (34)
For 51 more EVs,
That leaves McCain with a solid:
- Wyoming (3)
- Utah (5)
- South Dakota (3)
- Alabama (9)
- Nebraska (3 of 5 in twice due to splitting EVs)
A whopping total of a solid 23 EVs.
Let's be charitable and give McCain:
- Arizona (10)
- Oklahoma (7)
- Texas (34)
So, 23 + 51 is 74 total EVs.
Hell, even with:
- Kansas (6)
- Mississippi (6)
- Georgia (15)
- South Carolina (8)
- Kentucky (8)
- Tennessee (11)
- Florida (27)
thrown in, he only gets up to 155 EVs.
Even if McCain some how manages a sweep of:
- Alaska (3)
- Iowa (7)
- Missouri (11)
- West Virginia (5)
- Virginia (13)
- New Hampshire (4)
- North Carolina (15)
- Montana (3)
- Idaho (4)
- North Dakota (3)
- Nevada (5)
- Arkansas (6)
- Louisiana (9)
- Indiana (11)
That is 99 more EVs for him leaving the total at 254.
My guess is it will be 400 EVs to 138 EVs in favor of President Obama.
So, tell me where I am wrong.