Today, John McCain announces the Republican vice presidential nominee around midnight, if press reports are any indication. Here are the favorites:
- Tim Pawlenty
- Mitt Romney
- Joe Lieberman
I think Pawlenty is the pick for the following reasons: He is young, articulate, somewhat moderate (or at least perceived that way), compliments the head of the ticket well (by look, temperament, and geography), and probably puts Minnesota in play (as if it was not already). The risk her is a perception of inexperience and of trying to "young up" the ticket. Also, he will have a tough time against Biden in the one debate. I think the latter point is overdone, since one debate, even a really bad one, won't matter (See Reagan in 1984; Quayle in 1988; Dubya in 2004)
Romney has a clear shot because he has a success story as a family narrative, is right on social issues (at least since 2006), and is good on the stump. But the barbs between he and McCain are legendary, and McCain does not like him. But he will be good on the debate, and will shore up the economic credentials of the ticket, just like Biden helps Obama in foreign polict
Lieberman is truly the wild card. His is hated by hard-core Dems, and barely tolerated by the GOP base. His only real attraction is on foreign policy, but he is the clone of McCain there. He brings nothing for the ticket, and his strength among Jewish voters is over hyped. Most Jews are reform, and left of center. Any who now believe that Obama is bad for Israel, and who view that as the only issue of import, are voting GOP already. The big minus is his view on social issues, which borders on progressive. The base will not be too thrilled, and the base get out the vote and will attend the convention next week.