...or "Learn to start thinking about this election like the Obama campaign thinks about it", or "Why sports writers often make better political analysts than Washington insiders".
Forget perception. Forget the narrative. Forget the national polls.
This map is the only thing that really matters.
Allow me to state the obvious here- the objective of this election is to win 270 electoral votes.
Electoral votes will be awarded to the winner of each individual state contest.
The side that identifies the most supporters and gets them out to the polls on election day will win.
"Obviously", you say, but how obvious is it? One could be forgiven for getting the impression that we ("we" referring to "people who want Barack Obama to be the President") have forgotten this.
While endless Sarah Palin pontification floods the recent diaries list mulling over whether she is experienced enough (of course not), how this will be perceived (as a stupid choice, by most people), the veracity of claims involving Palin's daughter (irrelevant), and etcetera, the Karl Rove JV Squad's true intent is being ignored, or at least only lightly addressed.
To whit-
John McCain had exactly two problems going into the general election- a massive voter contact deficit (some bloggers have placed the Obama campaign with a 35:1 advantage) and an earned media deficit. Palin solves both problems.
GOTV:
The Left Behinders already think that Obama is an evil terrorist foreigner, and quite possibly the anti-christ, but they also think that John McCain is a Mexican-loving "librul" that will sell the country down the river.
Without any real motivation, these loyal footsoldiers that managed to deliver the White House to the worst President in history twice would have had no reason at all to get organized.
Now, they have a reason- somebody who thinks abortion should be criminalized even in the case of rape. Someone who believes intelligent design is science. Someone who believes that climate change is a natural, cyclical phenomenon.
In other words, John McCain was pressured by his handlers into dangling over the Religious Right the prospect of a hard-core fundie being a heartbeat away from the Presidency.
If they believe they can put America one malignant tumor away from theocracy, they will show up, donate money, make phone calls, and walk the precincts.
Remember Jesus Camp? Remember that awful, frightening woman in charge? This is her wet dream.
Earned Media:
Sarah Palin is a nationally unknown politician with an attractive face, much like our nominee. This is what the media business calls an "interest driver", and you can expect her to nab just as many magazine covers as Obama for the next 60-something days.
Moreover, picking a woman gives those insufferable gossips on the cable news shows something to prattle on about, asking the absolutely ridiculous question of whether Clinton supporters will vote for a hard-Right extremist with the stated intention of setting back women's rights a generation.
The answer, as we all know, is of course fucking not. But it means talking heads have a reason to repeat the name "Sarah Palin" over and over again, and by extension, mention John McCain.
Voila. Media imbalance solved.
::
It's not a Rovian trap. We are not being set up. This is not some kind of crazy jiu-jitsu. Picking Palin was a cold, transparent political calculation made for no other reason than GOTV and earned media.
Their only goal is to get 270 electoral votes. This pick helps them do that. End of story.
I absolutely abhor the ideas of the Right in this country, and I'd like to see some of these fuckers marched to the Hague for war crimes, but I envy their singularity of purpose.
The Karl Roves of the world realized long ago that politics is a contact sport, and we've let them out-organize us two elections in a row (and yes, that includes the organization required to get crooked Secretaries of State into office) while we sat and complained about how "undignified" and "underhanded" their tactics are.
So, please, shove that mindset where the sun don't shine and start thinking about this election like the game that it is.
The good news is, we're still ahead. We have a 50-state network built over 18 months powered by millions of volunteers. Our opponents may have closed the enthusiasm gap, but we have the organizational advantage.
All of the yellow states on this map are winnable.
If you live in or near any of these states, you are on the front lines.
You see how California borders Nevada? The pollster.com composite has Nevada at a difference of less than one percent. And I can't confirm this, but I have a strong suspicion that California contains a shit-ton of liberals, and that all of them can manage to find a carpool to Reno on any given weekend.
You see how New Hampshire is yellow? If you're a resident of Vermont, the state that gave us Bernie Sanders, chances are you'd be doing a lot more good organizing in New Hampshire than in your home precinct.
Do you live in West Virginia? Newsflash: Your neighbors probably aren't going to vote for Obama. Northern Virginia, however, is another story.
We have 2 months. If you live in or near a swing state, you need to be on the ground, walking the precincts and making phone calls, as often as you can.
Forget the pundits.
Forget the national polls.
Forget the chatter.
Forget the ads.
Forget the debates.
The only thing that matters is 270 electoral votes.
With the Palin pick, this is who we are now up against:
And two elections running, they've been more dedicated than us.
Let's make this a shutout.
Get yourself to a swing state.