With the introduction of Sarah Palin it is obvious this election has been thrown into turmoil. Until the dust settles after The Repub. ugliness this week, I don't see how anyone can be certain of who now is the front runner. Conflicting early poll results have muddied the waters even more.
Throw in the disaffected supporters of Hillary,Condi,Meg and Kathleen. Also include the glass ceiling fanatics (which may be the most influential of all in a close election) and it's clear we are, as the song says, "blinded by science"
I see another another ingredient in this new mix.I herewith coin it as the "MRS.BRADLEY FACTOR."
In every election which involves a new dynamic (minorities particularly or trailblazing) Pollsters look for the "Bradley Effect," the idea that some white voters are reluctant to say they support a white candidate over a black candidate.
The phrase refers to California's 1982 gubernatorial election, when the late Tom Bradley, a black Democratic mayor of Los Angeles, led in exit polls against white Republican George Deukmejian. Mr. Bradley lost the election. The conclusion: some voters hid their true choice from pollsters.
I see a similar effect slowly gathering steam right now.The latest polls taken after the Palin VP estimate that 17% of disaffected women are going to vote for the McCain-Palin ticket.
These women are being verbally abused everywhere by the MSM and more importantly by their feminist sisters. Frank Rich today in the times scoffs at this possibility.Dowd thinks these "Palinistas" might be serious.
I see a possibility these 3 million women may, for the forseeable future, at least, be venting their anger by lying to the pollsters. They know pro-choice is dead in the water if Palin gets in. They desperately want to have a woman in the White House. But as the election grows nearer and then they find themselves in the booth about to pull that McCain lever, they will revert to form and vote their conscience rather than voting with their hearts.
What I hope is that the Bradley Effect and the Mrs. Bradley Effect will cancel each other out and relieve the anxiety some of us have had to deal with when we have been looking at invisibly skewed poll results.