On this day exactly four years ago, the first Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ad began airing in Ohio, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Of course, where the group actually bought airtime was irrelevant, as the ad set off a media frenzy all too similar to the one we saw last week. With a series of scurrilous ads that made outlandish and easily refuted accusations, the group was able to secure millions of dollars worth of free airplay with the aid of a complicit media. During the daytime coverage, the ad was played repeatedly without any serious effort to investigate or fact check the allegations, and during the evenings, pundits like Sean Hannity and Joe Scarborough turned cable news into an unapologetic platform for the group's propagandists.
The impact was immediate and devastating for the Kerry campaign. Kerry's consistent lead in the polls vanished and gave way to the resurgence that eventually ended in Bush's reelection. Though his campaign mounted an impressive ground campaign, he was never able to adapt to the 'air war' in which Republicans discovered that the media will give disproportionate coverage to scurrilous claims. More importantly, the Republicans and their 527s discovered that the media will reward liars if it generates campaign drama.
Last week, McCain adopted the strategy that had been field tested by 527s in 2004. On almost every day, he released a ridiculous ad, laden with demonstrable lies, and received millions of dollars worth of free airtime from cable news channels, much of it from the same people who freely operated as media surrogates for the Swift Boaters in 2004.
For those who hoped issues of substances would have more prominence in this campaign, the results have not been encouraging. While many progressive bloggers dismissed the campaign as if it would be ineffectual, pointing to scattered denunciations from print media editorials and echoing the excessively optimistic Al Giordano's tired mockery of 'Chicken Littles' and 'hand wringers,' John McCain has established his first advantage in a tracking poll since the end of the Democratic primaries. Even more disturbing for those of us concerned about seeing history repeat itself, Obama's favorables have dropped to their lowest point since the end of the primaries while McCain's numbers held steady. This is what happens when the entire media turns into the GOP's YouTube channel, and this is why the greatest task Obama faces is finding a way to neutralize the Swift Boater strategy, especially given the fact that McCain's efforts will soon be supplemented by an army of 527s.
This morning, the Obama campaign released an impressive ad, but given its substantive and factual nature, it is unlikely to generate the sort of round-the-clock coverage that the media has given to McCain's ridiculous attacks. Obama's campaign should remain silent on this fact. During the primary, Hillary Clinton discovered that the media is extremely sensitive to charges of bias, and more recently, McCain has exploited that insecurity to a similar effect. Obama must stop giving the media a free pass. In a recent study, GMU's Center for Media and Public Affairs found that the media is overwhelmingly hostile to Obama. One can be sure that if the study had concluded the opposite, the McCain campaign would have had it in every reporter's inbox within minutes. The fact of the matter is that the media is the key component of the Swift Boat strategy, and any effort to neutralize it must, first and foremost, call attention to the media's bias towards covering and 'analyzing' GOP attacks.
Of course, simply criticizing the media does little unless you couple it with a demand. Any criticism must be used as an opening to turn the GOP's tactics against them. In other words, as long as GOP ads generate free coverage, there must be Democratic ads doing the same. As I said above, Obama's new ad is impressive, but it is the sort of ad that will only impact those who see it. There is a difference between a traditionally good ad and a good ad that drives media coverage. First and foremost, the latter must negatively define one's opponent in the sort of vague qualities that gossipy pundits love to obsess over. Certainly, McCain's equivalence with Bush and his ties to energy lobbyists are important points, but for these to have a lasting impact, they must conform with a voter's sense of who McCain is. The same goes for the 'low road' ad. If Obama hopes that McCain will fall on his own sword with these absurd ads, he must define the opponent who is to be impaled. A voter is far more likely to internalize information if it fits what he already believes, and a negative ad is far more likely to be internalized if it plays into a voter's existing anxieties about a candidate.
That being the case, glib literary references like "an honorable man running a dishonorable campaign" won't do. This line of attack will only to do what it did for Bush: give the impression of a bully who, while a bit unethical, still seems like a better candidate for 'protecting America' than the battered pulp in the corner muttering about Queensberry rules. It must be clear exactly why a 'low road' candidate would make for a poor president, and if Obama's ads are to drive media coverage, they must create 'questions' about McCain's personality for the pundits to 'analyze.' McCain's ridiculous and deplorable behavior, fortunately, makes this easy for us. He is clearly erratic and temperamental, and there is no doubt that a guy who sings 'Bomb Bomb Bomb, Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran' is not someone prone to wise and prudent decisions.
As such, McCain should be portrayed as an immature and unpredictable grouch, a bitter whiner who is lashing out because he feels entitled to the presidency. It must be 'asked' whether McCain lacks the temperament for the job, and it must be suggested that his extreme reactions to even the mildest adversity would be an incredible risk in a situation like the Cuban Missile Crisis. If Obama is to be the 'aloof celebrity,' then McCain must be the 'thin-skinned hothead,' a self-absorbed jackass who will obsess over being 'respected' and getting his way rather than work with the opposition to enact the progressive economic policies that Americans want. That is to say, Obama must campaign against McCain as LBJ campaigned against McCain's famous Senate predecessor and idol, Barry Goldwater. It was LBJ, after all, who first discovered just how easily a controversial ad can completely shift the terms of the debate:
The flip side of this is that it puts Obama's contrasting qualities in a positive light. His 'aloofness' becomes his 'cool headedness,' his high-minded optimism becomes the counterpoint to McCain's self-obsessed bitterness, and his 'celebrity' becomes the object of McCain's furious envy. While I understand that many are opposed to 'going negative,' the fact of the matter is that it is unavoidable in the sort of media environment that rewarded the Swift Boaters. Obama's new ad is undoubtedly negative, but to maximize its effect, he must also create a negative impression of McCain as a person. Given that it was McCain who went 'nuclear,' I don't think Obama or progressives should feel any moral apprehension about using his dishonorable behavior as a basis for negative characterizations, especially if they avoid using blatant lies in the way McCain's campaign did with the Landstuhl story and make it clear that a campaign 'cease fire' is always on the table. For now, as long as the media remains susceptible to the sort of Swift Boat-like hysteria we saw four years ago, we simply cannot afford to allow the GOP to dominate the terms of the debate.
There is one further point that demonstrates why Obama cannot cede the media to GOP Swift Boaters. As of now, Americans vastly prefer Obama on the issues, particularly the economy. Back in January, when Obama was still trailing McCain by a sizable margin, he completely decimated more generic Republicans like Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. McCain, however, is kept afloat by a persona that, as I wrote on Friday, has been carefully cultivated and protected by his admirers in the media. Until this phony persona is shattered, McCain will be able to swift boat without repercussions while Obama's negative ads are forced to contend with the cognitive dissonance that voters will feel when an ad suggests something negative about the 'honorable maverick.'
On this fourth anniversary of the first Swift Boat ad, the devastation that are country faces in the final days of Bush's second term make it clear that we can leave little to chance. McCain is pursuing a repeat of 2004, and until these tactics are turned against him, he will continue to use them and we will continue to see Obama's negatives rise as McCain is portrayed as the tough fighter who will do what it takes to win. In the current political climate, a referendum on personality is McCain's only path to victory. It's time to make him wish he'd opted for an honorable defeat.