Hurricane Gustav has revived the debate over the causal connection between global warming and hurricanes -- just in time for the Republican National Convention. Statistics compiled at Georgia Tech's Earth and Atmospheric Sciences department, reported yesterday by the Associated Press, indicate a sharply worsening trend.
Hurricane Gustav has revived the debate over the causal connection between global warming and hurricanes -- just in time for the Republican National Convention. Statistics compiled at Georgia Tech's Earth and Atmospheric Sciences department, reported yesterday by the Associated Press, indicate a sharply worsening trend.
From 1975 to 1990, about 17 percent of all hurricanes around the world were Category 4 and 5. From 1990 to 2004, that jumped to 35 percent. And from 2003 through last year it was up to 41 percent.
How much of that is attributable to human induced global warming? There's a range of scientific opinion, but no one disputes the fundamental equation at play:
Warmer water makes the surface air warmer, which means it could contain more moisture. That means more hot moist air rises up the hurricane, serving as both fuel for the storm and extra rainfall coming back down.
So given the hurricane trend and the fundamental causal relationship to global warming, what's a party to do? As Republicans head to Minnesota to formally nominate John McCain, Hurricane Gustav is providing a serious challenge to its energy and climate platform.
The wisdom of a "drill here, drill now" energy policy is being undercut by news reports, this one from Bloomberg:
Oil companies evacuated workers from more than 600 rigs and production platforms in the Gulf, where fields account for about a quarter of U.S. oil production.
The storm's eye may pass directly over the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, also known as the LOOP, which handles 12 percent of U.S. oil imports, said Jim Rouiller, a private meteorologist with Planalytics Inc. in Wayne, Pennsylvania.
"I still think this storm will be worse than Katrina,'' Rouiller said. "Refinery row from the Sabine River pass to Gulfport will sustain major flooding along with wind damage.''
U.S. energy producers have idled 82 percent of natural gas production and 96 percent of oil output in the Gulf, the U.S. government said.
Does it makes sense to prioritize oil drilling off the coast of Florida and other vulnerable offshore areas -- in a world in which hurricanes are only getting stronger and more frequent? Seven to ten years from now, when the proposed new rigs finally start producing oil, how much worse will hurricane season be?
And does it make sense for John McCain to pick a climate change skeptic to be his running mate?
If you really care about the people who are now fleeing their homes and bracing for destruction?
Stay tuned to see how the Republicans handle the messaging around the storm that's surrounding their coming out party, and whether they can answer these questions.
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