Hurricane Ike track . Hurricane watch from Cameron, LA to Port Mansfield, TX; tropical storm warning from Cameron east to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Not that it's too important with an intensifying Cat 2 with hurricane force winds extending 115 miles from the core, but the center of the NHC track is migrating northward along the coast>
At 4 PM CDT, the center of the track was aimed at the town of Matagorda, about 90 miles from both Galveston and Corpus Christi. At 10 PM CDT, Freeport, Texas found itself at the center of the track; Freeport is about 40-50 miles from Galveston.
The NHC track is a compromise track, with some models aiming Ike at Galveston and others aiming it to "deep South Texas" Discussion The forecast track rides on when a ridge building westward into Texas begins to weaken at its left flank. As of now, the discussion says that all areas of the hurricane watch area face an equal risk of getting hit. Their wind probabilities differ, suggesting the following risks of hurricane-force winds over the next 5 days:
New Iberia, LA: 6%
Port Arthur: 18%
Houston: 23%
Galveston: 33%
Freeport: 33%
Port O'Connor: 24%
Corpus Christi: 9%
But will Ike intensify? The eyewall is tenacious but small (8-10 nm) -- the worst case scenario there would probably be an eyewall replacement cycle finishing up as Ike approaches the coast. Ike will go over some eddies of the Loop Current, but also over relatively cool areas of the Gulf.
Forecast intensity at landfall is around 110 knots.
Mandatory evacuations reported by the Houston Chronicle: west end of Galveston Island, parts of Brazoria, Chambers and Matagorda Counties.
SE Texas evacuation and risk areas
I hope this can tide you over until millwx makes his next post.