I know this might go against the current, pessimistic Democratic myopia but I think the McCain campaign has made a serious, perhaps fatal mistake with their Palin selection and recent string of unbelievable, transparently political attacks on Obama.
I believe the McCain campaign has taken its eye off the most important prize in the electorate and has misinterpreted the enthusiasm and poll bounces they are experiencing from Republicans coming home to their party as a general election indicator. This has caused them to make a serious strategic error (just when so many Americans started tuning into the campaign) with their string of outrageous, politics-as-usual attacks: they're going to turn off and ultimately lose the non-partisan, independent middle.
So here's my prediction: Obama's poll numbers will rise, and stay there, once the GOP convention recedes into memory AND, as America gets to know her actual policies and actions better, Pallin's initial, superficial glow fades.
Get the facts that lead me to this opinion after the jump.
Why do I think Obama is going to reclaim the lead, probably for good? Well, here are some pesky facts, you know, the thing that Republicans like to ignore (GOP Strategist: "Facts Don't Really Matter"):
- 81% of Americans say we're on the wrong track (CBS poll).
- The recent WSJ/NBC poll indicates:
- Palin is not the game changer the MSM touts: she only brings a net gain (those more likely to vote minus those less likely to vote) of 9% to the McCain ticket while Biden brings a net of 8% to his ticket.
- There's still a yawning enthusiasm gap: only a third of McCain supporters are excited by him (34%) while more than half of Obama's are by him (55%).
- McCain is not the change candidate: only a third of the country thinks McCain will bring change (34%) while more than half think this of Obama (52%).
- (As a baseline comparison, 34% of respondents to this poll approve of the job George Bush is doing.)
- More people think McCain = Bush: in the last six months, the percentage of people who think McCain would closely follow Bush's policies has increased (from 29% to 37%) while the percentage who think Obama would be a risky choice has fallen (from 55% to 48%). More also, btw, think McCain is now the riskier choice (from 35% to 41%).
- CNN says women overall are "sticking" with Obama in their recent poll:
- Holland also points out that despite a concerted outreach by the McCain-Palin team to former women supporters of Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid, women nationwide seem to be sticking with Obama – 52 percent of women are planning to vote Democratic, while 51 percent of men are in the GOP column.
- Obama's gaining on the character questions: in the most recent Washington Post/ABC News poll:
- 57% said that Obama has the "better personality and temperament to be president" while just 35 percent said that of McCain. (This was Obama's largest edge over McCain on any of the 8 character/attribute questions in the poll.)
- Obama's favorable numbers remain quite strong (58% view him favorably, only 36% unfavorably)
So given these underlying polling facts, a strategy that:
- energizes your base by smearing your opponent with demonstrably false charges
- energizes your opponent's base by smearing your opponent with demonstrably false charges
- antagonizes the folks in the middle who don't like partisan sniping
- does nothing to distance yourself from George Bush
- does not add anything to your unknown running mate's resume beyond the few initial bullet points that have since come under increasing press scrutiny and challenge
- ignores the electorate's need to hear how you're going to fix the economy
is a brilliant stroke of political genius don't you think? Whether their actions the last 10 days turns out to be just a short term miscalculation or long term, fatal mistake (if the first impressions they've given to all the voters who just started tuning into the campaign congeal into solid, negative opinions), we'll just have to wait and see.
PS: As an added bonus, go here to see Chuck Todd on the Nightly News last night stating to all the low info voters who primarily get their news from TV, that the McCain Campaign doesn't want to discuss issues, they need to create distractions (which, given the facts above, I believe the public will see through):