I cannot believe how many--and by how many I mean basically all--of the "professionals", the people who have been covering presidential elections for years, the loudmouths and the not-so-loud, are so completely not seeing what is right in front of them.
They NEVER see the election for what it is until after it's over. It's astounding, really. Frustrating, too.
Can being on TV really make you that stupid?
Howcome in the second week of November, the idiots on TV and in the newspapers, who were SO SURE of themselves in October, suddenly see the election for what it was, and how OF COURSE it turned out the way it did?
For goodness sake, in June it was absolutely obvious to anyone with a brain that Obama's lead in delegates was insurmountable, and that Hillary's continued campaign for the nomination was based purely on the hope that Obama would somehow magically self-destruct; that love-children and bribes and gaffes would come out of the woodwork to destroy him and we would all go rushing to Hillary, and she would take us in her arms, cradle us, and say shhhhhhhh.....it's all right....I've always been here for you and now we can lose this election together
The punditry said "he can't put her away, he can't close the deal, can Hillary pull this one off? If anyone can, she can." As if she can change arithmetic. Ask Karl "You Have the Wrong Math, I Have THE Math" Rove, circa November 2006, about how that works out for you, trying to change arithmetic.
Then--gasp!--the primaries ended and Obama had kept his lead because he was the better candidate who ran the better campaign, and all--ALL--of the pundits were all of a sudden saying what had been clear for a month. Obama had put it away in the Spring, and all he had to do was ride it out.
I think that Obama has by NO MEANS put this thing away, but I do think that he is slowly and steadily making is way to 290 EV's. Kerry states plus Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Two ninety one.
The strategy is pitch perfect. Primary themes were, obviously, winning. Put him over the inevitable (ahem) Hillary.
Opening themes of general, reinforcing Change and getting specific. Late summer and early fall, focus on small events, let voters get to see you up-close, ask questions, get specific.
Draw sharp contrast between yourself and your opponent. Barack, being Barack, won't lie or exaggerate or get nasty to make a point, which seems like it's hurting him now but it will help him in the end.
You watch: in the next month, Obama will continue to set the stage for the debates, outlining his plans in detail and NOT CHANGING his tune or his strategy. Continue to call McCain and Palin out on all their lies, and call a smear a smear, and trumpet all of their stupid neo-con plans.
After the debates, we will see rallies like we have not seen yet. Day after day, huge crowds, uplifting speeches, hopeful messaging returns.
Now I'm going to go out on a limb here, and pretend it's the second week of November 2008. Here is what the media will be saying.
This election was a referendum on the Bush policies, and voters were clear: enough.
It came down to the Get-out-the-vote efforts, and Obama's superior organization and fundraising advantage put him over the top
In the end, Sarah Palin did excite the old evangelical base, but she turned off more independent voters, and she could not reach the younger evangelicals, who are concerned about the environment, poverty, war, and AIDS.
Exit polling strongly suggested that McCain's intensely negative distortions backfired on his campaign, especially in states where the economy has been hit hard and jobs are scarce: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and yes, Ohio.
Obama's refusal to engage in smears and lies helped him with independent voters.
And they'll say it like they knew it all along.