With all the back-and-forth on "chicken littles" vs. "honest discussion," I thought I'd chime in (as someone who has been accused of chicken-little-ism) with my own take on the race. Should we be upset about the Obama campaign now or should we assume they have it under control and just get busy and get to work? To use an old cliche, “The truth lies somewhere in between.”
First, the bad: the Obama campaign has never had a good media strategy, they’ve never been good at working the refs (although, to be fair, back when he was the inspiring candidate, they didn’t have to…one reason I think he should be inspiring us again), and their ads have never been strong. Obama performed best in the primaries in states where he could meet and organize as many people as possible or states which demographically favored him. But ads never won anything for him (see: Pennsylvania).
So no, not everything is going perfectly. And they clearly haven’t figured out how to react to the Palin boomlet, but let’s be honest, could anyone? I still contend it’s wrong for Obama to go after her as he’s been baited into doing. Let surrogates do that job.
On the other hand, I don’t think they’re idiots in Chicago and I do think they want to win. And I do think they’re making adjustments, even if sometimes those adjustments are clumsy. I also don’t think there’s much any of us can do about it, so to a degree, the “just get busy” call is an admission of powerlessness. The one thing each of us CAN control is registering voters, canvassing, fundraising, calling, etc. Is it any wonder that at the height my powerlessness feeling I’m about to head off to Bucks County, PA, to do door-to-door work?
But where are we really? Most of the national polls show a tie or McCain slightly ahead. The state-by-state polling is all over the map, but if you believe Nate and 538, then McCain is ahead in the electoral vote and slightly more likely to win this thing in the end. That’s a snapshot of where we are. Where are we going?
There’s a pessimistic take that says the Palin phenomenon is unlike anything we’ve ever seen and a VP candidate has fundamentally re-aligned the race. Obama’s been knocked off-balance and he’s going to stay that way for the duration.
Well, it’s the second part of that take I seriously doubt. The former is true: we’ve never seen a more comically unqualified candidate for national office who at the same time increases the level of support for that ticket. The bounce for the RNC is stronger and seems to be lasting longer than anyone expected. The GOP has closed the gap on economics and the "change" mantle. This race HAS fundamentally changed and it is important to acknowledge that.
But Obama’s been knocked off his rocker before. And he’s gotten back on his feet, and I trust he will too.
I also believe the Palin phenomenon is at its height, a bubble if you will, and it will start to burst. One thing has happened that we can’t undo: the evangelical right-wing base has awakened and are enthusiastic. Palin could be found murdering a homeless person and that base will come to her defense and blame the liberal media.
The question is in the margins, in the 1-2% of rational thinking moderate voters. At what point to they awake to the fact that the jig is up?
Now, let’s give credit to the McCain folks, they are keeping her in the headlines every day - and every day she is, that’s bad for Obama. First it was the speech, then it was campaigning with McCain and drawing big crowds, then it was interview prep so she went silent which built anticipation for…the big interview! Which didn’t go so great for anyone watching with half-a-brain, so they will pull her back now and wait until next week until she’s in front of Hannity. My guess is she’ll never meet another real journalist again until the debate…building anticipation for…the big debate! Very clever. Keep doling out Palin in bite-sized morsels to a media dying for all things Palin.
Nevertheless, big booms like this don’t last forever. Or, at least, they haven’t in the past. Whose to say it won’t last this time? I suppose no one, but if I were a betting man I’d bet that it’s not going to last much longer. McCain's position will be fundamentally improved, but no one will dominate moving forward.
As for Obama, there’s been enough posts written about what he “needs” to do. If I were doing it I’d start with big rallies, a simple, inspiring theme repeated over-and-over, a signature policy issue that perfectly captures what “change” means for him, and a much, much more aggressive press strategy with tough talking points for surrogates to go out there and do some real dirty work. Get the rest of the Dems out there.
But, that’s out of our hands, so let’s see where we are? 52 days away. Three presidential debates and a VP debate (a LOT riding on those, which is a bit nerve-wracking). And the fundamentals that still suggest the American people want change.
Electorally there’s this: Obama is highly likely to win all the Kerry states plus Iowa. His road to victory comes from either also winning Virginia, or also winning Colorado and New Mexico. The latter scenario may be most achievable, but I think Virginia is going to be REALLY close. The red states I would be pouring my money into are: CO, NM, NV, VA, OH, and FL. IN maybe if there is a lot of spare cash lying around. The rest should go to defending MI, PA, NH, WI, and MN (and securing IA). I think it’s time to start pulling back from Georgia, Missouri, Montana, and perhaps even North Carolina (though I have a friend there who would be upset to see me write that).
McCain basically cannot let Obama win anything more beyond the Kerry states than IA and NM. So he has to defend CO, VA, OH, NV, and FL. I think CO and VA are most winnable for Obama. Obama has to defend MI, NH, and PA…and I think he will. I think OH and FL are going to be tough, but not inconceivable.
So, here we are: Obama off-message and a Palin boomlet going on. It’s a gut-checking time, and there is simply no doubt that Obama made a lot of mistakes to get him to this point.
But winning requires (among many other factors) two things: Obama getting on-message and the Palin boomlet subsiding. I think both will happen. It will also require solid debate prep by Obama (much more than he did in the primaries), a couple more simple themes developed, maybe one or two good ads, and a strong ground-game - the latter I have total faith in.
The state of the race is close, but eminently winnable. So…get busy and get to work.
CROSS-POSTED AT STRATEGY '08