The Big Ten Poll shows mixed results for Obama.
As a life-time resident of Indiana, it saddens me that the only Red state on the map is my home. However, it is not surprising, and a 4 point margin sounds about right to me.
More amateurish State-level analysis:
Pennsylvania is still scaring me. Biden was supposed to help lock down that state. I still believe in the end that Obama will win on the Economy message.
Iowa confounds other recent polling in the state. This may be an outlier, and I hope that it is.
Minnesota is probably fools gold for Republicans. A 2 point lead is not very significant, but I just don't see this state switching sides.
Wisconsin is, again, too close for comfort. I'm thinking the Palin pick is resonating better in the Upper Midwest than the nation as a whole.
Compared to the other Big Ten states, Michigan and Ohio exceed expectations. Notice how many leaners there are in Ohio.
Since this is the first poll by this research team, I'll be curious to see how 538 will rate them.