A lot of people in the media have mentioned MI as a "toss-up" the last month or so. But, I`m not sure that is the case? Even at the peak of McCains bounce only 1 poll showed McCain ahead and that was only by 1 point (probably an outlier)
If you look at the "Kerry" states, you have MN, MI, WI, PA and NH as "toss-ups" at this point.
Most polls have Obama ahead by around 5 points and they where all taken a couple of days ago. Rasmussen also had Obamas favorables at 58% on the 10th this month, just after McCain peaked in the national polls. That is a very high number and Obama also had a lower "very unfavorable" number compared to McCain. Why is that important? Because McCain had a clear edge regarding approval rating at that time and a much lower "very unfavorable" nationally.
No pollster is perfect, but if you look at the average, Obama has been ahead all the time. The polls taken when McCain peaked where a little worse than before the conventions, but not much. I don`t think any of the recent Michigan polls reflect the full extend of Obama`s improvement nationally. Michigan is also a state that has felt the economic downturn very early, I don`t see McCain winning this state when the economy is the number one issue.
I think the numbers both regarding "favorable/unfavorable" and support indicates that the Palin effect have been less in MI compared to other states. That is a good sign since we all know that Palin`s favorable rating is down a lot the last 3-4 days. I think MI could be among the safest of the "toss-up" states at this point. I thought PA would be in a similar situation because of Biden, but at this point PA looks a bit closer than I would like. I still think MI is close enough for Obama to spend heavy on ads and we can all see that McCain is trying to take MI, but I don`t think the numbers support him.
Obama haven`t done much about MN, the polls have it quite close and McCain is outspending Obama by a huge amount. Do the Obama camp know something we don`t or are they playing the same game McCain does with IN? A game of poker where they think the other one is bluffing?
I am more worried about PA. McCain is spending more than Obama and it looks like the "palin" bounce had a serious impact here. Obama is still ahead on average and could easily get a bigger margin because of his recent strengths but PA is a bit to close for comfort even though no poll so fare have McCain ahead.
WI could be a place where Palin has solid support, but I still think McCain shows a lot of weakness when he can`t tie or go ahead at the peak of his bounce.
I think NH is the safest one of these 5. The only poll taken after the conventions have Obama had by 6 and that was in the middle of McCains peak. I think NH is a typical state where Palin has a low or even negative net-effect.
All in all. I`m pretty comfortable with NH, WI and MI.
But a bit worried about MN and PA.
It is extremely important that Obama keeps this 5 since he has shown great strengths in NM and IA, that means he would only need 5 more EV. If he loses MN, PA or both, he would need to compensate for 5 EV + 10, 21 or 31.
I think it will be interesting to follow the ad-spending in the coming weeks. It is very likely that both candidates will drop one or more states by mid-October. My tip is that McCain drops IA, NM, MI, WI and NH by the middle of October because he has less money to spend (NO RNC won`t fully compensate for Obama`s money advantage). I actually don`t see Obama dropping any states, he could even increase the number of states by 2 just to "tease" McCain a bit. I think Obama will spend a visible amount in both Arkansas and West Virginia.... Maybe he even does that at this point??