The ole gray lady does it again with a great summary of how Virginia votes and how the Old Dominion is changing into a mid-atlantic state with the growth of the DC suburbs.
Probably second only to Colorado in deciding the election this year, Virginia is also important to the future of the Democratic party as it is a high-growth state which would offset population losses in traditionally blue states in 2010.
While Northern Virginia is growing rapidly and turning more blue every election, i was surprised to learn the the most telling Republican bellweather in Virginia is not rural Virginia, but the city of Virginia Beach. A large well-to-do, ex-military repug bastion. If Democrats even come close in Virginia Beach they win the state.
The northern part of the state, especially the Washington suburbs, has trended Democratic recently and grown by more than 15 percent in the last eight years. The area now accounts for about a third of the state’s population, making Virginia, which has 13 electoral votes, more a mid-Atlantic state than a Southern one.
The state has also seen more than 200,000 new voters registered since January, about 45 percent of them under the age of 25, a demographic that has generally backed Mr. Obama.
"But so much depends on Hampton Roads," said Larry J. Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia, referring to a region with more than 1.5 million residents that includes Virginia Beach, Norfolk and a collection of midsize cities and sprawling suburbs.
The three Democrats who have won statewide races in recent years — Senator Jim Webb, Gov. Tim Kaine and former Gov. Mark Warner — all had strong support from liberal and moderate voters in Northern Virginia. But they probably could not have succeeded without significant support in Hampton Roads. "On election nights, I can look at Virginia Beach’s returns, and if I see a big G.O.P. margin, I know the Republicans have won the state," Professor Sabato said. "If, on the other hand, I see a close margin in Virginia Beach late on election night, regardless of which party wins the city, I know the Democrats have won the state."
Full story:
http://www.nytimes.com/...
I live in DC and have decided to concentrate my efforts in Virginia instead of Pennsylvania which is also close by. Tomorrow early voting starts in Virginia and for the next month i'll be driving folks who need rides to early polling spots in Fairfax and Prince William counties. We need to top 60% in Fairfax and win Prince William.