Insider Advantage has new polls out this morning from Colorado and VA.
In Colorado, the numbers look very good: 51-41, with 2% for others and 6% undecided. Over 50% in Colorado is great.
In Virginia, the numbers aren't as great: 48-46 with McCain leading. However, this has McCain leading in the 18-29 demographic, which seems odd to me.
I'll update this with more info as I get it.
Update
First, more on the VA poll. First thing that caught my eye is the sample size: only 502, with a 4.3% margin of error.
IA has McCain winning whites 58-36, and Obama winning blacks 75-19. Obama is winning Hispanics 94-6. Now, I love the trends with Hispanics, but I can't imagine that McCain is going to pull down 1 in 5 black Virginia voters.
The Gender divide is: 57-38 Men go for McCain, and 54-40, women go for Obama.
And, party orientation, Obama wins Dems 82-18, McCain wins Republicans 85-10, and Independents are basically split, McCain winning them 43-41.
More on the Colorado poll in a sec.
Update II
OK, Colorado poll same size, same MOE (4.3%). Good news is that puts Obama's lead out in front of the MOE.
Breakdown on the numbers, the age numbers look very good for Obama.
age group | Obama | McCain |
18-29 | 51 | 40 |
30-44 | 51 | 39 |
45-64 | 54 | 39 |
65+ | 34 | 58 |
More good news for Obama, McCain is in front among Whites only by 46-44, while Obama is in front among blacks by 70-26, and Hispanics by 79-19. All of these numbers seem to favor Obama heavily - Blacks should turn out higher for him, and if McCain's not topping 50% in whites, he's in very deep trouble.
Lastly, Indies are split 42-41, in favor of McCain, while Obama wins 85% of Dems and McCain wins 80% of Republicans.
Third update
I posted this below in the comments, but it bears repeating. I know first hand that Hispanics received a beating from Republicans in Virginia, and I believe the same is true in Tom Tancredo's Colorado. It should be no surprise that McCain is struggling to break into even double digits in Hispanic populations in states where there have been active racist movements against them.
The higher numbers for McCain in the black community may reflect a higher percentage of evangelical, socially conservative black voters in both states, although I think they may be over-sampled in both poll.
Just my two cents.