...It could end the union.
Seriously.
Let's say that McCain squeezes by in a squeaker where one or more decisive state (Ohio? Virginia? Colorado?) goes to him under shady circumstances: major voter suppression of minorities and students, long lines at urban polls whilst the suburbs are short (supposedly this has been mitigated in Ohio) or vote stealing or caging or something equally egregious. This has happened twice in the last eight years. In 2000, we didn't know just how bad Bush would be. In 2004, there wasn't as much passion about Kerry to try to make a big enough stink about it (and we didn't hold anything in congress anyway).
But this year is different. Much different. Obama has many very passionate supporters, the Democrats hold the congress, and if it appears that McCain has stolen the election, things could get very, very ugly.
If McCain wins a very contested election, you'll see a lot of groups taking to the streets like it was the 1960s. First, young people will likely be angered. College campuses might empty out, with strikes and marches in cities and towns across the country. But even larger, African Americans will feel, again, disenfranchisement. After being told for hundreds of years they couldn't vote because of the color of their skin, we have finally seen a non-white male rise to the top of a presidential ticket. And there seems to be a lot of passion. More than there was with a Gore or a Kerry running.
So if they feel, again, that an election was stolen out from them, this time it would be personal. McCain and Palin would be seen for the racists that they are. Thousands would take to the streets, often in cities, where they would probably meet with other students and forward thinking people angered at McCain's ascendency.
And the Republicans need to win. If Obama wins, it will probably be with a huge House margin and 56-58 seats in the house. In the next two years, he'll work to end the war and shore up the country's finances. But the big blow comes in 2010. In that year, we get to have a referendum on the Senate class of 2004 (Known asClass III). For the Dems, it's a bunch of strong candidates, with 15 seats to defend. Maybe three (Dorgan, Lincoln, Salazar) would be competitive. For the Republicans, they have to defend 18 seats, including such lowlifes as Kit Bond, Jim "lost his marbles" Bunning, Judd Gregg, Mel Martinez, John McCain, Lisa Murkowski, Arlen Specter, John Thune, David Vitter and George Voinovich. That's a 10-3 difference. Four or five pickups equal a filibuster-proof Senate. That's where the real fun — health care, infrastructure, education, science, rejection of things like the Patriot Act — and change, begin, without filibustering. All of these things will benefit progressives for years to come.
So the Republicans need to win — perhaps more than we do — but they only are popular in one part of the country. If you look at a poll which shows its internals, you'll see that, geographically, most of the country strongly supports Obama. How much so?
Northeast: 60-33 (That's nearly 2-1!)
Midwest/West: 52-40
And some of the country (where they didn't let black people vote until one generation ago) doesn't:
South: 53-38.
Let's say a stratified electorate makes it a close race, and McCain steals, say, Ohio. Blatantly. We will not sit by like we did in 2000 — we've seen where that leads. So we'll act. We'll take to the streets. We will make a stink.
This leads to two legislative possibilities. Both lead to ugliness.
Scenario 1 is that, when the joint session of Congress goes to certify the ballots, objections are raised. This is allowed under the electoral college mechanics. The Democrats hold both houses of congress, and on the 6th of January will probably hold it by greater margins, so objections will hold some water. The problem is that Dick "Dick" Cheney will preside over the session. Objections and debate between the Dems and Lame Duck Cheney could get very, very ugly, very very quickly.
If the Dems cave, we move on to Scenario 2. If not, and the Dems delay enough until January 20 comes around with no president or (god forbid) vice president elected, the speaker of the house becomes president. Hello, President Pelosi.
Or maybe not. The Dems could pull a real coup here and elect Hillary Clinton Senate President. They could. This would get really ugly, but it wouldn't be the worst idea. She has a lot of supporters, and if it were between McCain and Clinton, most Obama supporters would jump aboard too (I'm an Obama supporter, for the record, but Clinton >>>> McCain). If McCain had stolen the election, Hillary could probably swing enough popular sentiment for McCain to step down. Pelosi could defer to the Senate President, and we'd have a President Clinton. But it would be extraordinarily ugly (and probably never happen).
Scenario 2
McCain steals the election, and the Dems cave or refuse to fight. In that case, it's up to us. In much of the country, we'd take to the streets. Remember "a day without immigrants"? Imagine that, except on a much larger scale, shutting down entire cities. I'm not saying it would happen, but it surely could (I just don't know quite how deep passions run — I do know I'd take to the streets myself). If Obama were up for the fight, he could leave an alternate movement backed by millions which could lead to pushes for certain states' secession or for McCain to give the White House to the real winner.
This would be uglier. The words (careful, elitist French ahead) coup d'etat come to mind. It could break apart the country, with some states going one way and others the other. I don't want to see it happen. Which is why we need to make sure that Obama wins by enough to overcome whatever hijinks are thrown in, and that he has the team to fight against whatever the Republicans will throw in the way.