Alan Abramowitz is one of my favorite political science professors. Here's a brief bio on him:
Alan I. Abramowitz, Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science, B.A. (1969), University of Rochester; M.A., Ph.D. (1976), Stanford University. Previous appointments at William and Mary (1976-82) and SUNY Stony Brook (1982-87). Areas of Specialization: American politics, political parties, elections, and voting behavior. Current research involves party realignment in the U.S. and its consequences for presidential and congressional elections
His complete resume (curriculum vitae) is located at the link above (PDF file) for those who are interested in his areas of expertise.
I've been following Abramowitz's research regarding this upcoming election. He's quite prolific, and I've written a few diaries to summarize his research results. For a thorough analysis on some of his recent research, read my diary here:
Why I Believe In Science (Redux): Data Predicting President Obama
In that diary above, you'll find a thorough analysis of these points:
- Abramowitz's analysis of the Gallup Tracking Poll data, which shows Obama consistently ahead, especially in the "purple" swing states.
- His analysis of the "Myth of A Toss-Up Election."
- His analysis of the shrinking Republican base and the increasing Democratic base.
- His mathematical formula, "The Electoral Barometer," that has accurately predicted most of the past elections.
I've been waiting for a more recent article from Professor Abramowitz, and I see he has now boldly published that Obama will win this election by 54%. I know it sounds almost too good to be true, but I have a lot of faith in this man's sound scientific analysis. Here's what he has to say in this latest prediction:
Barack Obama has this one in the can, the Emory University political scientist says. Abramowitz’ call for November: A popular vote of 54.3 percent for Obama versus 45.7 percent for McCain.
Abramowitz says he’s got a "time for change" data model that fits the popular vote winner, within two percentage points, for the last five presidential elections.
The keys: The state of the economy, presidential approval ratings and the number of terms a party has been in power.
I believe the "Time for Change" data model he is referencing above is the same as his "Electoral Barometer" model he has written about before (and discussed in my previous diary).
Abramowitz weighs economic factors heavily in his model. More importantly, this prediction above was made in an article published on 9/11/08, which is several days before our economic meltdown on Wall Street. No doubt that will be a serious factor in his future predictions.
How good are some of his predictions? Well here is what he predicted before the 2006-midterm elections:
A report from Alan Abramowitz from Emory University estimates the Democrats will gain 29 House seats and two or three seats in the Senate.
In the 2006 elections, the actual results were a gain of 31 House Seats and 6 Senate seats by Democrats. He actually under-predicted these results, but not by too much.
So take what you want with it, but tonight I'm feeling very hopeful, especially with some scientific analysis to back it up.