That's my prediction. Sarah Palin will withdraw her name from nomination as Vice President of the United States.
And the issue is simple. Credibility. Not Governor Palin's per se, but McCain's. Credibility is a resource that must be preciously guarded by a campaign. And at the moment, McCain's campaign is probably unsure that it has the required capital reserves of credibility for McCain and his top surrogates to spend defending (1) the pick, (2) his truncated vetting process, (3) his judgment in making the pick, (4) his health, and (5) what his pick says about his view of the role of the vice president.
McCain's top surrogates are not out giving a full throated defense of the issues above. Instead, the B-team is out doing the tough, unenviable tasks of defending Palin and fighting the 5 alarm inferno that is unfolding with the press corps. More than that, McCain is not offering Palin herself to beat back the flames at this point.
When you make important decisions in a hurry and try to roll them out with great fanfare, you leave yourself exposed to big mistakes. And the biggest mistake here was that in an effort to define Palin as an exciting reformer who opposed the bridge to nowhere and would be a soulmate fighting earmarks, the McCain campaign now has drawn dead, to borrow a poker expression. Palin campaigned for the bridge to nowhere. She, through her hired lobbyist, lobbied aggressively and successfully for earmarked federal funds. And so, the McCain campaign will have to decide whether to spend credibility capital explaining away Palin's previous positions on those issues, or whether to spend credibility capital maintaining the lie. Either way, there is a hit to credibility. A hit that should have been totally unnecesary.
Then there is the Alaskan Independence Party narrative that is unfolding. For a campaign that has believed that reinforcing the libelous Manchurian Candidate screed is the best way to attack Senator Obama, picking a candidate who was involved in some way with a fringe group of separatists probably costs you a lot of credibility. McCain's camp has decided to attack the press at the moment, but this one isn't going away. After all, Alaska is a small state. And the AIP is certainly claiming her at this point. And a word of warning to both McCain and Governor Palin, double-crossing a group like this one virtually guarantees that the membership will turn on you in a big time way. And there is a hungry group of investigative reporters in Alaska about now anyway.
When you face a public relations debacle like the one facing the McCain campaign at the moment, the best thing to do is to tell the truth. Preserve your credibility, or whatever remains of it. And the truth is, McCain goofed. He wanted to pick someone else, and he ran out of time when his pick was vetoed. I actually agree that the pick restored his maverick status. He told Rove to take a flying leap. But in doing so, he exposed his credibility reserve to a big hit. A Palin withdrawal will preserve the remaining credibility he has. Sure, he will have to beat back attacks about his judgment and temperament. But at least he would have the credibility to do so.