McCain was for the surge when Obama was against it. Set the bar low for Obama.
This Friday Obama and McCain face off on national security. This should play right into McCain's wheelhouse - Iraq and the surge. He will attempt to nail Obama for opposing the surge. The public generally is happy with the surge results. Obama is in real trouble on this issue.
Now, Obama has plenty of cause to claim the surge has not worked in crucial ways it was intended to but this explanation could make Obama sound professorial - something he needs to avoid.
Obama will link the economy to Iraq and this will be effective. McCain will make the case that if we lose in Iraq, if we lose the war on terror all else is meaningless. McCain will also make the case that we've put so much money and time in already, why not stay and finish the job? This is a simple message that Americans may relate to.
Obama is the underdog on the issues here. I know that the dailykos.com community disagrees with McCain on these points but I don't know if the majority of Americans disagree with McCain.
So the trick is winning this debate on erfomance. You win a debate on performance by having low expectations then exceeding them.
We need to lower the bar for Obama in this debate. Conceed the upper hand to McCain and let Obama perform jujitsu. He should flip the issue on McCain - conceed the surge is working and then extend the arguement to victory.
Obama needs to define what victory means in Iraq. He should claim we have already acheived victory in Iraq - Saddam is dead, Al Quedda is in shambles and they have elected leaders - so we should bring our troops home in victory! Not the rub it in your face move many on the left would like him to take, but I think it would play well to the middle and take some of the edge off McCain's arguement. Put McCain in the positition to defend victory. Does McCain beleive we have not won the war in Iraq?