The race in Nevada is perhaps closer than in any other state. For the last several weeks the average margin of lead by either Obama or McCain has been very slight (2% or less).
But Nevada has only 5 electoral votes and consequentially does not get the attention that the other battleground states get when it comes to deciding the election.
Colorado and Ohio are emerging as the most commonly referenced "deciding" states. Ohio can win it for Obama if he wins all of the Kerry states. Colorado decides the race if Obama wins all the Kerry states and stays ahead in Iowa (where he has a big lead) and New Mexico (where his lead is substantial).
But recent poll results (and now here) in Virgina and calculations at 538 about allocating the undecideds indicate that Nevada could well decide the race in the increasingly likely scenarios where New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia play a role.
More below.
Since Nevada is relatively small, the "return on investment" of Nevada magnifies this importance.
First the new developments.
Survey USA shows Obama up by 6% in Virginia. Survey USA is the most reliable major poll according to 538. Obama’s surge in Virginia indicates he may well be more likely to win Virginia than he is Pennsylvania. The new ABC/WaPo poll verify Obama's lead in Virgina giving him a 3% advantage.
538 has come out with a list of calculations of how undecideds are likely to break for Obama. Obama significantly loses undecideds in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. He gains undecideds in Virginia and Colorado.
So here are the scenarios where Nevada decides the race.
- "The Colorado Loss". Obama takes the Kerry States plus Iowa and New Mexico, but loses Colorado. Nevada either completes the McCain victory or forces the election into a 269-269 tie.
Many would agree, that is the most likely of the three scenarios presented here, given the race now. Obama has only a slight lead in Colorado and that may fade as the glow of the convention in Denver wears off. Obama has to overcome the fact that Colorado went to Bush by 8% in 2000 and by 5% in 2004. According to 538, the independents should break slightly (51.8%) to Obama’s favor.
- "The Pennsylvania -Virginia Switch". Obama takes the Kerry States, except for Pennsylvania. Obama wins Virginia as well as Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. Nevada’s 5 votes decide the race (either 270 Obama to 268 McCain, or 268 Obama to 270 McCain).
This is the scenario I think may become increasingly more likely. The break of undecideds to Obama according to 538 is quite substantial between Pennsylvania (44.8%) and Virginia (57.8%). If the race is close where one state can decide the outcome and Obama loses Pennsylvania (21 votes) he effectively needs more than just Virginia (13) to make up the loss to get him to 270. He will need Nevada in this case.
- "The New Hampshire Loss". Obama takes the Kerry States except New Hampshire, but wins Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. Nevada decides whether Obama wins or the race ends in a 269-269 tie.
According to 538, the New Hampshire break of undecideds is only 42.2% to Obama, so losing New Hampshire is a possibility even if he maintains his current approximate 3% lead.
Nevada could come into play in other scenarios involving Obama losing Wisconsin, but those seem much less likely than those presented here.
538 currently has Nevada as the state with the second highest "return on investment", next to Colorado. This should be further emphasized with this analysis.
538 also shows the Obama break in Nevada to be 46.7%. – not particularly bad. Also, I believe the break here is overstated against Obama in Nevada and New Mexico since 538 is using the population of Catholic voters as being a breaking factor against Obama. That may be true of the Catholics in the Appalachian areas and in the East, but the Latino Catholics who voted for Clinton in the Southwest, are not likely to break to McCain like they did for Clinton.