I recently moved to Pennsylvania from Ohio, and have done a small amount of canvassing and phone banking here. Even though I'm living in an Obama stronghold (State College - home of Penn State), there is still a good amount of McCain support. Especially after the Palin pick - the number of yard signs shot up dramatically around here, though they are still quite outnumbered by Obama signs.
One area of concern that I have, though, is the prevailing sentiment of distrust that voters in industrial areas like Erie, Johnstown, Scranton, and Wilkes-Barre have toward Obama. Could it cost Obama the election in this state? I don't know. But if you look at the results of the 2004 election, one can see that John Kerry enjoyed really decent support in those areas.
Now, I know that primary votes are not indicative of support in a general election, but I think Pennsylvania may be the most susceptible (along with Ohio) to Hillary holdouts - old-line Democrats, working class Catholic voters, who will not vote for Obama.
In Cambria County (Johnstown), Bush and Kerry nearly split, each receiving just over 30,000 votes. In the primary, Hillary received more than 70% of the votes, while Obama scored less than 10,000.
In Erie County (Erie), Kerry beat Bush by eight points, racking up nearly 70,000 votes. In the primary, Hillary received 63% of the vote, while Obama scored 20,000.
In Luzerne County (Wilkes-Barre), Kerry edged out Bush by about 5,000 votes - Kerry ended up getting 70,000 votes. In the primary, Hillary received 75% of the vote, and Obama got merely 20,000 votes.
In Lackawana County (Scranton), Kerry handily beat Bush, scoring 60,000 votes to Bush's 45,000. In the primary, Hillary received 75% of the vote, with Obama getting 15,000 votes.
Again, I realize that looking at primary votes and comparing them to general election results is not predictive of the ultimate success of candidates. However, I do feel confident in saying that Obama will not do as well as Kerry in these industrial areas, specifically around the Scranton and Wilkes-Barre area, and am wondering if people "in the know" are aware of the Obama strategy. The way I see it, it's probably a combination of one or some or all of the following three strategies:
- Convince Hillary hold-outs to back Obama over McCain
- Run negative ads against McCain in the last week in those markets to suppress voter turnout
- Run up the numbers in Philadelphia, the surrounding suburbs, and Pittsburgh
Pennsylvania is definitely a toss-up. Probably more so than any other state. But there is enthusiasm for Obama in this little liberal oasis in the middle of Pennsylvania, and we're doing our part to get college students, townsfolk, and citizens in other parts of Centre County to get out and cast their vote for Obama. What's everybody else's take?