Barack Obama is a good speaker and a brilliant thinker--he was a law professor, after all--but he hasn't been the best debater. Here's what he's done wrong and here's what he needs to do.
Obama, over the course of the Democratic primaries, debated many times. And obviously he didn't fail all of them--otherwise he wouldn't have been the Democratic nominee. But he was frequently outdone by Hillary Clinton and even his VP, Joe Biden, who, I think, was the best debater in the Democratic field, despite the fact that he lost miserably in the Iowa caucus.
Obama's problem is not what he says, but how he says it. A wise man said that, when speaking, 70% is how you look, 20% is how you sound, and 10% is what you actually say. This is why Presidents like Ronald Reagan are admired so: they were good-looking and knew how to give a good speech, never mind the BS Reagan actually spewed on a regular basis. And, true, Obama could probably outdo Reagan in a scripted, teleprompter speech. But even I can say that, in an unscripted debate, Reagan would probably run circles around Obama. And John McCain has many of the same debate qualities that Reagan had.
Number one, when McCain talks, he looks like any bomber pilot would: energized, passionate, and alive. Americans like that. Obama, like any law professor would, is dispassionate, analytical, and thinks about both sides, displaying both the pros and cons to the public, before saying why--in his very humble opinion--a certain side is correct.
The American people want the former. They don't like law professors. They don't like brains. This was the problem that was crystallized in the Saddleback forum: Obama gave much better answers, but because they weren't good soundbites, the media said he flopped. And he needs good soundbites. America is an incredibly dumb country. We don't want to listen to someone speak on and on about a subject. And the only way we CAN stand to listen to someone go on and on is if they sound how McCain does when he's speaking extemporaneously: energized, passionate, and alive.
If Obama can get himself a handful of good soundbites and can be a little more assertive, he'll run away with it. If he can flash a smile and laugh every time McCain lies and explain in kind terms how McCain is wrong, not only will that set McCain off (an explosion of temper by McCain) could teeter the election toward Obama in a big way) but it will also give him that Reaganesque quality America seems to love so much, that constant sunny optimism and that sort of dismissive quality toward his opponents, we'll be calling him Mr. President come next January.
I think he can do it. He's certainly spending a long time in debate camp---all week in Florida, leaving only to do minor appearances around the state (which is now TIED, down from a 5% McCain lead two weeks ago--if we win Florida, not only will we win the election, but Al Gore will be dancing in his underwear, now that's hawt)--and McCain is doing nothing more but getting some questions thrown at him occasionally by his advisers on his plane. He doesn't have a mock debate with an Obama stand-in or anything. That's a recipe for disaster. Pride cometh before a fall. But Obama has to look good, look proud, look sure of himself. Like President Kennedy did in 1960. Nixon beat him on substance--I, a great admirer of John F. Kennedy, can admit this--but Kennedy looked better and more sure of himself, and he became the President. That's what Obama needs to do.
And he can do it.