(Rank, State, Score (max=1))
- Pennsylvania - .854
- Michigan - .775
- Florida - .685
- Minnesota - .675
- Colorado - .652
- Wisconsin - .620
- Washington - .589
- New Jersey - .583
- Ohio - .576
- Virginia -.560
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Just Missed: North Carolina, New Mexico, Indiana, Oregon, Nevada
(2000 Florida would rank 1st, 2004 Ohio would rank 2nd just below Pennsylvania)
Current National Average: +3.0 for Obama
Nate Silver's top 5 tipping point states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virgina, Colorado, and Michigan
As we are just over two months away from the Nov 4th election and a few days away from the first debate, I thought I would take a try at some statistical predictions. (Notice: I'm just a novice at this)
Question: What state is most likely to be this years Florida (2000) or Ohio (2004? Which one will be the "tipping point" state that decides a very close election. Several sites such as 538 have similar analyses but seem overly convoluted attempting to adjust for all confounders that are difficult to measure. I will provide a crude analysis that could be less biased than the other on the web. (I prefer the 538 one, but it is nice to having something to compare it too)
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Methods:
The rankings are based off of two measures:
- States Difference from National Average based on composites from Pollster (a popular ranking which combines all data from several pollsters - gallup, rasmussen, cnn, etc). I excluded a state more than 10 points away from national average, assuming they would not be a tipping state. We are also assuming that the election will be closely contested in terms of popular vote, or there will not be a tipping point state.
=(10-X)/10
X=State's difference from national average
=therefore a state that is exactly equal to natural average = 1
-given .50 weight
- # of Electoral Votes - (538 total in nation, 270 needed to be elected president)
=(State X's # of Electoral Votes)/(Largest state of interest electoral votes)
-therefore Largest state in question ratio = 1
given .50 weight (In 2004 - New Mexico and Iowa were actually closer contested than Ohio, but did not have enough EV to "tip" the election)
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Assumptions/Drawbacks:
-State data is following same trend as National data (not lagging behind)
-Confounders such as ground game, similarities to other swing states (demographics), and nation/state lag time are not involved in model
-Arbitrary weighting of state average (.5) , electoral average (.5)
Analysis:
The states at the top seem to be more Obama leaning states possibly because of a recent Obama bump in the national polls. It's possible that some of the state data has yet to catchup with the national data. The list is filled with larger states possibly to a fault. I'm considering changing the 50/50 designation. I'd love to hear feedback.
A couple of surprises on the list:
- Pennsylvania - seemed to be a strong obama state, but polls have been mixed lately, very close to national average
- New Jersey - see Pa
- Ohio and Virgina - would expect to see these states at the top of the list. Seem to be running a few points behind national average for Obama.
Cross posted on my blog: Data Driven Decision