A new poll out today from NPR conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Roser and Public Opinion Strategies finds that there is:
intense interest and nearly universal intention to watch the upcoming debates: 62 percent are "very likely" to watch the first presidential debate (up from 51 percent in 2000 before the Gore-Bush debate). Expectations are high for Obama, as a near majority of 49 percent expect him to perform better, compared to only 34 percent expecting McCain to dominate.
Before debates, candidates and their surrogates always play the expectations setting game.
They say their opponent has the oratory skills of Caesar or Cicero. That they can move mountains with words. That they are the best debater the world has ever seen.
With the financial crisis as the dominant news story right now, there is less attention on the campaigns, and less air time to fill with the expectations game.
But what this poll shows (and what you'd guess based on past performance) is that the stakes are very high for Barack Obama. And they are very low for Senator McSame.
We have to hope the John Hot-Temper will show his true stripes and stammer and stumble around - or we could be walking away with the punditry saying he 'won' just by not losing so bad. Conversely, one small gaffe from Obama could be magnified so out-of-proportion to be labeled a game changer. Let's just hope he doesn't roll any eyes or give a deep sigh!
Other interesting findings from the the NPR survey:
The first presidential debate is taking place at a time when the race is at a dead heat (44 to 46 percent McCain) in the battleground states and also a time when Barack Obama is making gains in critical areas:
The economy. Obama has emerged with a 9 point advantage on the economy — probably the most important comparison at this point. Obama also holds a 16 point advantage on "bringing the right kind of change."
Obama has gained on authenticity and honesty: He made massive gains at McCain’s expense on who "has flip flopped on the issues."
Obama has made important gains on leadership qualities: a 6-point gain compared to McCain on "has what it takes to be president"; a 7-point gain on which candidate is "too risky." Indeed, the two candidates achieve nearly equal ratings on these leadership attributes.
Obama gained 6 points compared to McCain on "taxes" -- McCain’s signature economic issue. Despite these gains, McCain is maintaining a 7-point lead with independent voters — an important reason why this race is still a dead heat in the battleground states.