With less than 2 months left in the Presidential election, I thought it would be helpful to my fellow Kossacks to take a weekly look at the state of play of the race. This is not necessarily just a look at polls, but at the momentum, the issue, and the overall environment right now.
In short, let me 'splain - no, no is too complicated - let me sum up.
This was the week that Barack Obama took control of the election, inside and out. More below...
The Overall State of the Campaign: With 7 weeks to go, the economy has moved front and center in the race, thanks the chickens coming home to roost on Wall Street. The convention bumps have faded, and the race is essentially where it was before the Republican convention now. No, it's not tied, it's not really all that close. What has happened is that the frenzy over the Wall Street crisis and bail out has tilted the playing field against Republicans - but more about them later.
One side note: This debate about the bail-out and the debacle that is how we got here shines a very clear light on an over-riding philosophical difference between the two parties. Republicans believe that giving ever more money to those that already have more money benefits the economy - and therefore - everybody else. Democrats believe that giving more money to those who actually need it benefits the vast majority of Americans, and - therefore - the economy. As usual, the Republican philosophy has caused a train wreck that the Democrats will have to clean up.
My opinion: We are actually at a tipping point right now - not between whether Obama or McCain will prevail, but whether this will be a narrow victory by either candidate, or a Barack blowout.
The polls: If you watch them really, really carefully, the tea leaves are saying that the Democrats have come on like gangbusters in the past week. It's not just that Senator Obama leads John McCain in most national polls now, nor that he's peaking over 50% in several of them. The state-wide polls in battleground states show that Obama is tied or ahead in the vast majority of them. Even better, there are polls out that show movement toward the Democrats in places where we don't have as many Presidential polls (Hagan leading Dole in NC, McConnell and Lunsford tied in Kentucky). The environment, once purely favorable to Democrats, is looking that way again.
The McCain Crazy Car: Yes, Barack Obama has found his voice, the economic news is certainly hurting the GOP, but the Obama campaign - right now - may have no greater friend than their opponent. John McCain is a clown car gone wild. Employing Rovian strategy (translation, lie until you bleed) without any of the subtleties that made it work for Bush, the media has caught him, they are investigating him, and the McCain Maverick Myth is falling apart as fast as his campaign's competence. In fact, there seem to be so many disasterous stories breaking against the Arizona Senator and his staff right now that it's hard to keep up. Oh - and you are only allowed to redefine yourself once during a campaign, and that only works half the time (ask Vice President Al Gore). What is he now - the maverick re-de-reregulator?
My opinion: Unless something drastic happens in one of the debates or in the news to change the current frame of the campaign, McCain's Hooverian comments that the fundamentals of the economy are sound will go down as the "Poland is not under the domination of the Soviet Union" of this election.
With a Shot of Sarah Palin for Extra Campaign Stupidity: I think I ask myself at least once a day what McCain could possibly have been thinking when he chose Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Now hidden from the press in a teflon bubble, Governor Palin has so much baggage that the only way to defend her is to attack the media for reporting the facts. That's find with the right-wing hard core out there (like they weren't going to vote for McSame anyway), but voters are looking for leadership from their candidates right now, and that attacking the New York Times ain't it. Like many other VP picks, Palin can't win the election for McCain, but she sure can hurt him around the margins - and she's working very hard at doing just that.
My opinion: McCain, knowing he was a long shot to begin with, thought (in that old white man sort of way) that if you put a woman on the ticket, all women will consider her, and he'd put himself back in the game. He did for a few minutes, but only because Palin galvanized the right, not becauses liberal and moderate women suddenly became mindless automotons who thought it was more important to vote for a member of their gender than somebody that actually agreed with them.
Obama is Hitting His Stride: The Democratic nominee is actually taking a play from the Clinton (Bill) campaign in 1992. He hits McCain over the head with a two-by-four (pick a reason, there are so many) and then gets specific and in touch with the policies he's addressing. It worked for Clinton then, and it's working for Obama now.
My opinion: This is Obama's election to win or lose. McCain is almost like comic relief right now.
Have You Ever Seen an Attack Dog with more Heart than Joe Biden: Man, this was a good pick! Biden, for all of his gaffe potential, is all about sincere belief in the American dream and the authenticity of his roots (just like Barack Obama). If we had seen more of this from him in the primary, he might have survived beyond Iowa. Regardless, there was one little blip in the Biden juggernaut this week, as he criticized one of the campaign's own television ads. Not exactly a Biden gaffe - but not exactly something we want to see from what has been an exciting and disciplined campaign.
My opinion: Biden's moment will come in his debate with the over-prepped Palin, who clearly has a habit of repeating talking points on a level never before seen from a major-league candidate. Assuming he handles her deftly, he might actually get more camera time on the other end, something he richly deserves (and would be great for the Democratic campaign).