There seems to be a wave of excitement right now saying that Obama is winning. His positions are nuanced, he's speaking well, and he's saying things we all agree with.
The problem is he's debating like he's in an appellate court. He's passive, unemotional and playing his cards close to his vest. Joe average won't like it.
John McCain is the opposite, he's gregarious, making bold statements, and repeatedly turning to one line that is going to haunt Obama tomorrow:
"He doesn't understand"
Obama should be a better debater than this, he's just let himself get hammered by that line over and over again. He needs to respond with "I understand that George Bush and you XXXX", but he's playing this so passively he looks timid to the average viewer, and he's playing right into McCain's old theme of inexperience.
Don't believe me? Fine.
Think I'm being alarmist? Fine.
Commentary starts in 40 minutes, and I guarantee you the lead line is that "This was on John McCain's turf, and his experience showed".
I'd bet my life on it.