"It's easier to win if you always act as if you're losing even when you're leading.Humility is key to any victory." JBT
I understand that we all feel a little better to see Obama leading in the polls and gaining ground a bit. But the current atmosphere of early celebration ( diaries like "Obama wins election","Game changer"... have been posted and recommended this days), is just as exaggerated and uncalled for as the "small depression" that was largely observed when McCain got his bounced. Since the polls seem to entirely determine how we feel about the election,although most won't admit it, it's wise to at least look at them closely before starting the celebration.
1.The Environment
The economy has completely dominated the news cycle and the narrative throughout the last 2 Weeks and since Obama has always had an advantage there over McCain it is actually disappointing that his lead is not even bigger.Palin is, as I expected , beeing exposed by the media as incompetent and quite frankly I can't see her having a worst press as she's having right now anytime again in this election cycle .
So everything seems to favor Obama right now, yet his lead is still in single-digits.The narrative will change (the media want a close race) and Palin, if she performs well in the debates ( well, if the pundits deem her performance good-and I'm sure they will-), will get much more positive coverage in the weeks to come .
The fact that Obama's lead right now is still single-digits should IMHO somehow tell you that this race is a lot closer than many of us would have hoped, and will probably remain close til the end like many predict.
2.FLORIDA-OHIO
Make no mistake about it , this election will be decided in those 2 states again and the fact that we're still trailing in those states despite Obama's bounce (even if we've closed the gap a bit) is not a good sign either.I know there is a path to victory for Obama without FL and OH, but it's way too fragile and too idealistic to actually happen.he would have to :
-keep all Kerry states:
Despite Obama's bounce in the polls , the trend in NH and MN isn't reassuring. Obama had a lead in both states and he's now either tied or narrowly behind . We can't be sure he'll win those states. Add that to PA not beeing secured, you can see why it's tough for Obama to meet even this first requirement
-Add NM,IO,CO
While NM is looking good , I think we should be careful about Iowa.Kerry lead in Iowa in the polls , but actually lost the state to Bush on election day.
CO is IMO still a toss-up and we can't bank on a win there either.
So bottom line is: there is still a lot of work to do and if we repeat the same mistakes we made 4 years ago( when we didn't consider the worrisome signs expressed in some polls ), we might very well hand this one to the repubs again.