Everyone is talking about how mismatched this debate on Thursday is going to be. I frankly agree, but there are ways that an experienced pro can win on policy but still lose on style.
Let me explain. I debated Lincoln-Douglass(essentially the format that most presidential debates take, save for time to prepare, cross-examination, and fairly strict time limits) in high school, and was in several debates that were severely mismatched(both ways, as I started I was pitted against people that were much better than I was, and as I got more experience and confidence, I got people that didn't have a clue what they were talking about). Now, as a college student judging these debates, I get to watch them all the time.
What we need to be concerned about is twofold. We need to be concerned about a.)Joe being classic Joe, shooting his mouth off when he should be quiet. I tend to be of the belief that this will not be the case. The two most memorable lines from last year's debates were: "a noun, a verb, and 9/11," and "Yes." Joe doesn't make gaffes in debates.
I am concerned that he will be too hard on her. She deserves a lot of criticism for being an airhead, but he has to tread lightly when attacking her. I know he says he knows how to debate women. Hear this:
There are an awful lot of very, very accomplished women holding high public office that debate, and we beat up each other every day in the United States Senate,” the Delaware senator added. “Try debating Barbara Mikulski, try debating, you know, Barbara Boxer, try debating Olympia Snowe
The difference between those three women and Sarah Palin, of course, are that they are "very, very accomplished," and Sarah Palin is not. Observe:
Couric: You've said, quote, "John McCain will reform the way Wall Street does business." Other than supporting stricter regulations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac two years ago, can you give us any more example of his leading the charge for more oversight?
Palin: I think that the example that you just cited, with his warnings two years ago about Fannie and Freddie - that, that's paramount. That's more than a heck of a lot of other senators and representatives did for us.
Couric: But he's been in Congress for 26 years. He's been chairman of the powerful Commerce Committee. And he has almost always sided with less regulation, not more.
Palin: He's also known as the maverick though, taking shots from his own party, and certainly taking shots from the other party. Trying to get people to understand what he's been talking about - the need to reform government.
Couric: But can you give me any other concrete examples? Because I know you've said Barack Obama is a lot of talk and no action. Can you give me any other examples in his 26 years of John McCain truly taking a stand on this?
Palin: I can give you examples of things that John McCain has done, that has shown his foresight, his pragmatism, and his leadership abilities. And that is what America needs today.
Couric: I'm just going to ask you one more time - not to belabor the point. Specific examples in his 26 years of pushing for more regulation.
Palin: I'll try to find you some and I'll bring them to you.
COURIC: Why isn’t it better, Governor Palin, to spend $700 billion helping middle-class families struggling with health care, housing, gas and groceries? … Instead of helping these big financial institutions that played a role in creating this mess?
PALIN: Ultimately, what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health care reform that is needed to help shore up the economy– Oh, it’s got to be about job creation too. So health care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reductions.
In what respect, Charlie?
Then there's this:
Capitol Hill sources are telling me that senior McCain people are more than concerned about Palin.
The campaign has held a mock debate and a mock press conference; both are being described as “disastrous.” One senior McCain aide was quoted as saying, “What are we going to do?” The McCain people want to move this first debate to some later, undetermined date, possibly never. People on the inside are saying the Alaska Governor is “clueless.”
This is not about gender, but about the fact that Palin is "clueless" on policy. Joe will win on policy, but can lose the debate on style. It's very easy to be shocked by the stupidity of what you hear and your first reaction is to turn to them and say, "What!?" It's very easy to be dismissive of them and appear to be a snob. As an L-D judge, I have two decisions to make: the first is who won the round. In this case, it's simple. The person who had an idea what was going on gets the win. The second question is how many speaker points I will assign to each debator. This affects your seed in the finals if you happen to make it that far. It can be the difference between breaking and not breaking to the quarterfinals. If you win, but react dismissively towards your opponent, you will not get good speaker points.
Joe has to tread lightly on saying much if anything about how bad she is policywise. Here is how you win:
You shut up and let them make a fool out of themselves and move on. Joe's job this debate is to say little to nothing about Palin when she makes a gaffe. Just watch her dig her hole. Now he does have to talk, and he can talk. He can even attack. He can talk about her record, he can talk about ANWR and offshore drilling. He can talk about her support of brutal hunting methods that have PETA legitimately up in arms. He can have that legitimate debate with her, and when she makes 0one of the above gaffes, he needs to ignore it. He doesn't need to "beat her up." He doesn't need to say how uneducated a particular remark is, the American people will be able to take that remark at face value. All he needs to do is talk about the Obama/Biden plan.
And that's how you beat a lightweight when you're a heavyweight. You treat them with respect, which means attacking the good points that they make, and leaving the bad ones out there for the audience to digest on their own.
None of this "Sarah just doesn't understand" business. Debate the facts, let us judge her understanding of them.
I know Joe can do this. He's a smart guy. I'll be ready to sit back and watch Sarah skewer herself.