Game over. McCain is going to lose. So say the most reliable predictors of presidential elections - gamblers, or "punters," in British lingo. According to this Bloomberg article, London and Dublin bookmakers report a dramatic shift in betting patterns after news came out regarding the Palin choice as Republican vice presidential candidate. Here's the money quote:
``Ever since he appointed her, people have stopped betting on McCain,'' said David Williams of Ladbrokes in London. ``He went down like a sack of potatoes as far as the punters are concerned.''
Why is this big news? Answer below the fold.
This is big news because, according to the Bloomberg article:
political betting on financial markets outperforms polling as an elections predictor, according to a University of North Carolina study and figures from the Iowa Electronic Markets. Only twice in the century through 2004 -- the 1916 election and the 2000 contest between Bush and Democrat Al Gore -- did the betting markets get it wrong on the popular vote.
So, since Al Gore actually won the election in 2000, it means that gamblers on presidential elections have accurately predicted the winner of the presidential race in every race in the twentieth century except for one.
And gamblers and punters are overwhelmingly convinced as to who will win the race, and McCain's decision to pick Shocking Sarah Palin seems to have sealed the deal. In fact, since McCain has dropped like a sack of potatoes, now gamblers are betting on whether McCain will drop Shocking Sarah from the ticket.
``While it is rare that a VP candidate gets dropped, it's not completely impossible,'' said Ken Robertson, political betting analyst at Paddy Power Plc, a Dublin-based gambling company. ``Lots of our punters are betting `Shocking' Sarah's days are numbered,'' he added, using a nickname he came up with for the first-term Alaska governor.
Moreover, in just one day, the chances of Shocking Sarah being dumped as the VP candidate increased dramatically. Before the Bristol pregnancy announcement, the odds were 20-1 that Palin gets dropped. After the announcement, the odds went down to 8-1. Depending on what happens with her speech tonight, those odds may go down even further.
And, you may ask, what are the odds on Obama winning the presidency? Well, according to the "punters," his odds are really, really good, and those odds have gotten better since the Shocking Sarah pick.
The betting houses also say punters are shifting toward an eventual Obama victory in November. Paddy Power said Obama is now favored 4-9 compared with 1-2 before the Palin appointment. William Hill said Obama's odds shifted last week to 4-9, where they now remain, from 4-11 on Aug. 21 and 2-5 before that.
John McCain's reckless, impetuous and impulsive decision to pick Palin has certainly been a game changer alright.
Could someone pass the mashed potatoes?