...then it's floundering, no doubt. But that's where McCain's last couple weeks seems to have put him. This diary is more of a musing on a worst-case scenario(from our POV)for Palin's performance on Thursday. I find it never hurts to plan for the worst...
IF Palin knocks it out of the park, (and have no doubt, the media WANTS her to so they can return to their favored horse-race narrative,) then let's not get all nelly like we did the week of the Repug convention.
Here are some pros and cons that might be important:
Pro: Even if she does exceed expectations, (and how could she not after the last few outings?) it's still over a month out from election day. There will be two more debates between the big dogs to soak up all the triumphal wing-nut slobber. And there are no other large-scale, structured VP events for her to capitalize after Thursday.
Con: Her base will be revived, and that could slow Obama's rising numbers in places like CO and VA.
Pro: There will be no good excuse to hide her from the press, increasing the likelihood of a Maccaca moment. Expect her and her handlers to be far more brazen if Thursday goes her way. That might just backfire on them.
Con: SNL. If Palin does well and Biden does not, SNL will take the opportunity to get all 'even-handed' and skewer Biden. Compared to Palin, though, Biden's goofs are pretty low-level, "TV in the 30's" stuff. Not near so funny as the stuff Palin serves up. My guess is that SNL will smack them both.
Pro: It may be that a stellar Palin performance will get McCain a few points in the trackers. Worst case, say 4? But if the convention bounce faded in a little over a week, a VP debate bounce should hang around only half that long.
So what do you folks think? Good night for Palin, then abandon hope? Or just ride out some minor pro-McCain waves for a few days? I think the Obama team is planning for a bunch of pro-Palin spin from the media on Friday. But they are a lot smarter than me, so I am confident that they can handle it.