Last night John McCain pledged to stop sending $700 billion "to people who don't like us." This was, presumably, his shorthand description of his plan to end America's dependence on foreign oil. As is typical, however, what McCain said was merely a soundbite, not a strategy, delivered in codespeak to a narrow base (translation: Drill! Drill! Drill!), and like so many of the Bush Administration policies and proclamations, it has no connection to reality. Analyzing this statement thus leads to several important conclusions about McCain, his campaign, and his real plans if elected. There are so many problems with McCain's statement that it is difficult to know where to start, but let me try.
First, while we do indeed spend $700 billion a year on imported oil, and while that is indeed a serious problem for our economy, very little of that money goes to "people who don't like us." About 25% of our oil is imported from Canada and Mexico. The last I heard, they were our friends. Only 40% of our oil is imported from OPEC, and only 20% comes from the Persian Gulf region. Virtually all of the OPEC oil comes from three places, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria (which may be governed by repugnant regimes, but are nevertheless U.S. allies) and Venezuela (which genuinely doesn't like us, at least at the moment). The balance of our imports come from all over the world, including staunch allies such as Britain and Norway. We import very little oil, if any, from Russia, Iran or any other hostile country.
Second, the reason Russia, Iran and all the other "people who don't like us" are drowning in money is not because Americans are buying their oil, but because American consumption levels have driven the price of oil sky-high and they are able to sell their products to the rest of the world at dramatically inflated prices. America consumes 25% of the world's oil production. Unless and until that demand level is reduced, the "people who don't like us" will continue to be flush with cash whether we buy their oil or not. The reason that America consumes so much oil, by the way, is not because we are rich, but because we are wasteful. Our per capita oil consumption is twice that of other rich countries such as Australia, Japan, or anywhere in Europe. Only Canada has a comparable level of oil consumption, and the explanation is simple - both countries lack alternative transportation systems and suffer from suburban sprawl. Thanks to the non-existent energy policy of the Bush Administration, our consumption has increased by nearly 5% since 2002.
Third, while it may seem superficially reasonable to suggest that increased American oil production would reduce the global price of oil by increasing supply, that won't happen because absent a significant reduction in demand both here and abroad, it simply isn't possible to produce enough oil in America to compensate. Many people might be surprised to learn that the U.S. is already the 3rd largest producer of oil in the world, at 5.7 million barrels a day, behind only Saudi Arabia and Russia. Even if it were possible to double that production (and it's not), making the U.S. the largest producer in the world, we would still have to import nearly 8 million barrels a day from those "people who don't like us" at a cost of roughly $400 billion. What's more, because oil is sold in a global market, Russia and OPEC would very likely reduce their own production to offset that increased supply in order to keep prices artificially high, therefore reducing or eliminating any benefits to the American consumer.
My point here is not that we shouldn't increase drilling in the U.S. I actually think we should. Rather, my points are that this isn't a simple issue, that McCain's effort to make oil exploration a national security issue is intentionally deceptive, and that absent a significant commitment to conservation the only people who will benefit from McCain's "policy" will be the same oil companies who have held the White House in thrall for the last eight years.
Those of you interested in more facts, rather than spin, should take a look at the surprisingly useful site maintained by the Energy Information Administration: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/...